GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.53; (P) 170.51; (R1) 171.14;
The breach of 169.80 suggests that fall from 173.46 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development suggest that the consolidation pattern from 174.84 is finally starting the third leg. Break of 169..50 support should confirm and target 167.77 and below. Meanwhile above 17197 resistance will invalidate this bearish case.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) might still extend to above 174.84. Nonetheless, upside momentum is rather unconvincing as seen in weekly MACD. Thus, even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to limit upside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 163.87 support should confirm medium term topping at 174.84 and bring deeper correction to 147.61/156.77 support zone next.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.10; (P) 138.30; (R1) 138.64;
The breach of 131.13 suggests that recent decline has resumed and intraday bias is turned back to the downside. As noted before, current decline should be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 145.68. Next target is 136.22 support. On the upside, however, break of 139.36 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
