Overview
In what has been a rather subdued session amid a lack of fundamental news-flow, AUD/USD saw some selling pressure overnight after the lacklustre Chinese Trade Balance data which saw the import component fall the most since the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, NZD/USD traded on the back-foot after New Zealand PM said the RBNZ is looking at new tools so they don't have to tighten, ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision. However, in the latter half of the session, the weaker USD-index pulled off 11 and a half year highs which in turn supported the antipodean currencies to gain against the greenback.
Elsewhere, the softer USD lifted both EUR/USD and GBP/USD in early trade with EUR/USD unable to make a sustained break above 1.0900. From a newsflow perspective, today’s Eurogroup meeting remains on the forefront of the markets agenda with weekend comments from Eurogroup Chief Dijsellbloem announcing his displeasure regarding Greece’s latest proposals, stating that terms are far short of what was offered 2-weeks ago. Although, heading into the market close the USD retraced all of its initial losses to trade marginally flat thus seeing EUR retrace earlier gains. In other news, analysts at JPMorgan cut their EUR/USD for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 citing the strong US Non-Farm Payrolls as they expect the USD to strengthen for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, the banks forecast for USD/JPY rose from 121.00 from 117.00 for Q1 and 125.00 from 123.00 for Q2.
Looking ahead, sees no tier 1 data scheduled today with market participants keeping a watchful eye on any developments in discussions on the Greek bailout from today’s Eurogroup meeting. Furthermore, possible comments from Fed’s Kocherlakota, Mester and Fisher are expected after the European market close.