USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3380; (P) 1.3401; (R1) 1.3430;
USD/CAD recovers further today but it’s, after all, still bounded in range below 1.3444. Consolidation might extend and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3160 support holds, and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 1.3444 will extend the larger up trend from 1.2061 for 1.3685 fibonacci level next. However, break of 1.3160 will indicate near term reversal and bring deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) is still in progress and should target to 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, such rise is not clearly impulsive yet. And it could be the second leg of the long term corrective pattern that started at 1.4689. Hence, even in case of further rally, we’d be cautious on loss of momentum and topping above 1.3685. Nevertheless, in any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2969) holds.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7168; (P) 0.7178; (R1) 0.7188;
AUD/USD formed a temporary low at 0.7151 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. But upside of recovery should be limited by 0.7246 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 0.7151 will extend the fall from 0.7393 to retest 0.7020 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.7246 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside. Rebound from 0.7020 could then probably head to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 before completion.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound could still be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume later and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.
