EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1734; (P) 1.1763; (R1) 1.1796;
EUR/USD is bounded in tight range of 1.1723/1814 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.1723 minor support will suggest rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1525 support. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1325; (P) 1.1354; (R1) 1.1384;
With 1.1317 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for 1.1452 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm near term reversal. That is, whole correction from 1.2004 has completed at 1.1178 after hitting 1.1154/98 key support zone. In that case, further rise should be seen to 1.1713 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.1317 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn intraday bias neutral again first.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1207) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
