AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7240; (P) 0.7261; (R1) 0.7272;
At this point, AUD/USD is staying above 0.7228 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Above 0.7303 will extend the corrective rebound form 0.7804. But upside should be limited below 0.7361 resistance to complete the correction and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.7228 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7143 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall from 0.8135 through 0.7084 low. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2925; (P) 1.2940; (R1) 1.2972;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral with focus on 1.2975 minor resistance. For now, we’re holding on to the bullish view that larger rise from 1.2061 is still in progress. On the upside, above 1.2975 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3063 first. Break will target 1.3225 key near term resistance. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 will dampen our view and target 50% retracement at 1.2723 next.
In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level. As long as it holds, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. However, sustained break of 1.2879 will dampen his bullish view and turn focus back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.
