Currency Speculators Bullish Positions Advance For Second Week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and forex speculators increased their overall US dollar bullish bets last week for a second straight week and to the highest level since June 2013.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $37.36 billion as of Tuesday September 30th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.55 billion from the $35.81 billion total long position that was registered on September 23rd, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US Dollar bullish position continued to strengthen with the US dollar position trading over +$30 billion for a seventh straight week and the US dollar index reached a new highest level since 2010 with a push above the 86.00 threshold. Last week’s bullish level marked the highest speculative level since June 4th 2013 when bullish positions equaled $39.12 billion.

Overall Speculative Net Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts increased for a third straight week last week to +281,204 contracts as of Tuesday September 30th. This was a change by +43,148 contracts from the total of +238,056 contracts as of Tuesday September 23rd. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the euro, British pound sterling and the Swiss franc while decreasing weekly bets for the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

• Euro positions saw a slight gain last week after declining the previous week. The Euro spec position has not fallen past the September 2nd bearish level of -161,423 contracts suggesting that there could be a short term bottom in place. Although, despite the potential bottom in spec positions, the exchange rate continues to decline and test the 1.2500 level

• British pound sterling positions rose back over to the bullish side last week after two weeks of bearish positions. For September 30th, the GBP is the most bullish currency against the dollar at a small +3,589 contracts

• Japanese yen bets deteriorated further last week for a 2nd weekly decline. Yen bets are now at the lowest level since January 2014 as dollar strength has pushed the USDJPY exchange toward 110.00

• Swiss franc bets rose slightly last week as Franc positions continue to be on the bearish side for fifteen straight weeks

• Canadian dollar positions fell last week for a third week and now positions are on the bearish side (-4,566) for the first time since June. The USDCAD exchange rate traded above the 1.1200 major level last week

• Australian dollar net positions dropped for a fourth week last week as net bullish positions have tumbled over to the bearish side at -2,017 contracts. This is the first time Aussie positions have been bearish since April

• New Zealand dollar net positions declined last week to an overall neutral position (+64 contracts). This is the lowest level for NZD contracts in just over a year

• Mexican peso positions dropped last week for a fourth straight week as peso spec positions fell to the bearish side (-7,314 contracts) for the first time since early August

This latest COT data is through Tuesday September 30th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures