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Currencies - Short-Term Outlook

Published 01/16/2012, 12:09 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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BIG
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EUR/USDChart - 1
EUR/USD:

1.2675

Short-Term Trend: downtrend

Outlook:

EUR attempted a rally last week as expected but failed near the 1.2870 resistance and resumed its decline. The prices remain below the declining 21-day moving average which tells us the current downtrend remains strong. Thus, we should expect further weakness this week. The next level of potential support is near 1.2350. At the same time, we should note that the decline from the late October 2011 top remains corrective and therefore, the downside should be considered limited. And once the current leg lower is over, a powerful rally twd 1.35/1.37 should be expected...

Strategy: Stand aside.

GBP/USD:
GBPUSD
GBP/USD: 1.5316

Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend

Outlook:

GBP resumed its ST decline last week and finally reached the 1.5260 important support level. The move down however remains choppy and thus it is considered corrective. Our wave count on the weekly chart suggests more weakness ahead but most likely the price action will remain choppy. And I begin to doubt the prices will reach the 1.5000 level. Anyways, the intermediate trend is down and further weakness is expected. On the upside, the key resistance remains at 1.5775/80 and only abv there will indicate that wave (D) has already ended....

Strategy: Stand aside.

USD/JPY:
<span class=USD/JPY" title="USD/JPY" width="715" height="518">
USD/JPY: 76.95

Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend

Outlook:

There was no downside progress last week. Actually this market has becoume very boring once again with daily ranges of 20-30 pts. I still think the next big move is likely to be on the downside, but we need a move below 76.60/50 to at least signal this move down is under way already.
On the upside, abv 78.20 negates, risks larger recovery here twd 79.00 and possibly higher...

Strategy: Holding short from 77.80 is favored. Stop=78.30. The downside target is near 69.00 eventually.

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