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Currencies - Short-Term Outlook

Published 12/27/2011, 12:01 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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NDX
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EUR/USD:



Nasdaq 100:

2287.47

Short-Term Trend: sideways

Outlook:

The price action last week was quite positive as the bulls managed to hold the prices well above the late November low. As result, the Contracting Triangle idea from the July 2011 top seems more and more likely and a move abv 2343 will further solidify the bullish case. To confirm that a larger-degree advance twd 2460 and 2544 is under way though, we need to see a move abv 2400 level.
On the downside, the key level remains the Nov low at 2150 and if the market breaks below there, the ST and MT picture will become quite bearish.

Strategy: Stand aside.


GBP/USD:



GBP/USD: 1.5627

Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend

Outlook:

The market rallied to 1.5770 last week in what appeared to be a smaller degree wave c of (ii) and then gradually declined by the end of the week. Honestly, the internal structure of wave (ii) on 240-min chart seems a bit akward and that is a cause of concern that wave (ii) may not have ended yet. But on the daily chart wave (ii) of C seems complete and so, we expect further decline this week. The trending conditins are not that good either, so until we see a clean break below 1.54000, we will not know that the larger-degree downtrend has resumed. Ultimately we contunue to expect a decline twd 1.50 before wave (D) is over.
On the upside, a move abv 1.5770 negates the above outlook, signals something is wrong with our wave interpretation here.

Strategy: Shorts favored here against 1.5780. Target=1.5000.


USD/JPY:



USD/JPY: 77.89

Short-Term Trend: sideways

Outlook:

USD/JPY traded in a very tight range last week of only 50 pts. This is a strong confirmation that right now this market is dead. Obviously the larger trend is down and if one wants to be involved, they would prefer the short side. However, the fear of BoJ intervention keeps the bears very cautious here and as result this market is barely moving. I suspect this type of range-trading will continue to prevail in the next few weeks, but ultimately it will be resolved with a break down.

Strategy: Shorts favorable here against 79.60. The downside target is near 69.00 eventually.

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