Crude followed the complex structure we wrote about last week and continued lower on completing (as of now) wave Y of this double 3 complex corrective pattern.
Crude 4H Chart - July 11, 2016
In this chart, crude is exactly near the lower-bound of the yellow channel, and ideally that level should hold for this corrective wave not to overlap with yellow wave 1 top. Below $42.50 this becomes too extended and we will consider this structure as an A-B-C corrective pattern (see orange count).
Crude 1H Chart - July 11, 2016
This 1H chart explains crude's complex behavior according to EW Theory and the possible two scenarios we discussed last time. Wave Y is very close to being completed above $44.00 and thus crude would have a double 3 corrective wave 4 (W-X-Y with 7 waves in total).
Below $43 crude overlaps with wave 1 (see first chart) and we will embrace the second bearish scenario (green count) and expect wave 3 to hit 162% extension level at $42.50.