September crude oil made an early weak attempt at a rally on Thursday, July 28, 2016, getting up to 42.22 before failing and breaking below the 50 WMA now at 41.61. Once crude broke below the 50 WMA it traded down to the low of the day at 41.04.
It wasn’t able reach support at the 200 DMA at 40.92, and it rebounded to 41.45 in a test of resistance at the 50WMA. Crude oil then tested the lows, reaching 41.06 and it ended the day at 41.10.
Settlement was at 41.14. With only one month left in the summer driving season, traders are seeing the global inventory data for crude products near the high end of their respective 5 year averages and it is leading to concerns that rebalancing may take longer than expected.
If crude oil can’t bounce off the 200 DMA on Friday and overtake the 50 WMA on some short covering in front of the weekend, I think crude oil will test support down at 40.46. If longs give up a test of support at 39.00 is possible.
High 42.22
Low 41.04
Last 41.10
Daily Pivot Points for 7/29/16
R2 42.63
R1 41.87
PIVOT 41.45
S1 40.69
S2 40.27