November crude oil continued its push higher on Thursday, September 22, 2016, trading above the 100 DMA (46.20) and getting to the trendline which was at 46.53 for the day.
The high was 46.52. Crude then spent the day consolidating between 46.52 and 46.10 with a spike down to 45.93 as it neared settlement and then bouncing off that low to close at 46.32. Crude oil then grinded lower for the remainder of the day and ended the session at 46.08.
The market’s push higher was a reaction to the surprise drawdown in crude oil inventories and a weaker US dollar but without another bullish catalyst to drive price past resistance crude oil floundered and it ended the day below the 100 DMA.
Thursday’s range was small; the tightest in the past 4 days and it is in between the 100 DMA and the 21 DMA (45.40). Trendline resistance is at 46.43 for Friday. If crude breaks above the trendline on Friday, a test of resistance at 47.33, (the August 22 low) is possible. Trendline resistance at 48.22 is next.
A breakout above here would be bullish, in my opinion. If crude oil falls below the 21 DMA, it could lead to a test of the 13 DMA (45.08), and then the 50 DMA at 44.66 and the 8 DMA is nearby at 44.50.
As you can see there is a lot of moving support in a tight area. Trendline support is at 44.07. A breakout from Thursday’s narrow range could lead to crude oil’s next directional move.
High 46.52
Low 45.52
Last 46.08
Daily Pivot Points for 9/23/16
R2 47.04
R1 46.56
PIVOT 46.04
S1 45.56
S2 45.04