The broad market is very slow. There is not any market moving news this week. The Fed met last week and there was the nonfarm payroll report. If there was ever a time to be at the beach or the lake this is it. And it is just this kind of sleepy market that can lead to surprises. Right now Crude Oil may be one of them.
Crude Oil nearly doubled in price as it moved off of a bottom in February, rising from just over $26 per barrel to just under $52. But since that peak in June it has pulled back. It looked like a bull flag at first but then it accelerated to the downside. By the end of July it had fallen back to the 200 day SMA. It started August with a dip below the long run bull signal, and continued. But that was short lived. it stalled just above a 50% retracement of the full leg higher from February and reversed.
It spent just 2 days below the 200 day SMA and has been rising for 5 days. Tuesday sees Crude Oil at its 20 day SMA, and resistance at what was prior support in April and May. Momentum is rising with the RSI approaching the mid line, and the MACD crossed up. Should it get over $44 it will attract a lot of attention. that would also go a long way towards confirming a AB=CD pattern that would target a move to the $64 area.
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