COT Currency Speculators: US Dollar Bets Decline For 1st Time

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators decreased their US dollar bullish bets after a run of five straight weekly increases.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $12.19 billion as of Tuesday June 17th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$3.76 billion from the $15.95 billion total long position that was registered on June 10th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US Dollar position, despite the weekly decline, remained on the bullish side for a sixth consecutive week. The dollar position had fallen over to a bearish position on April 15th and remained there for four weeks into May before turning bullish on May 13th.

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators bet in favor of the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar while there were weekly decreases for the euro, Australian dollar, Mexican peso and the New Zealand dollar.

Notable changes:

• Euro positions continued to decline for a sixth week to the lowest overall level since May 28th 2013

• British pound sterling positions increased sharply and net bullish positions rose to the highest level of the year

• Japanese yen short positions declined after 3 weeks of rising short positions, USDJPY currency pair has been ranging around the 102 level

• Swiss franc positions rebounded slightly to an overall bullish position for the first time in four weeks

• Australian dollar net positions fell slightly for the week after impressive run up that has seen just four weekly declines since March 11th

* All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro. Please see charts and data below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Disclaimer: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.