Those that view the message of the market on a daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.
Chart
Copper's focused bull opportunity has produced a 54% annualized return for the bulls since the second week of November (see JJC Matrix). The opp recorded an impressive 1305% return in the fourth week of November. Disciplined bulls that withdrew their initial investments in the fourth week of November are letting their profits run while watching TIME (BuST) and trend energy (DI).
Smart money, a small minority listening to the message of the market, recognized the decay of TIME as BuST rises above 0 and approaches 2. BuST = -0.4 defines a trend nearing its cycle mid point. Ongoing concentrated distribution, DI readings greater than -60%, advises increased risk aversion for the bulls. Increased risk aversion could mean tighter stops or faster than normal profit taking on the profits - other people's money.
JJC Matrix
A weekly close above the July 2015 gap from 30.40 to 30.79 supports the up impulse, while a close below the November gap from 25.89 to26.15 could reverse it. A reversal favor testing of lower support.
On balance volume, a crude measure of trend energy, has been displaying higher highs relative to price since July. Positive divergences are fractal. A positive divergence on the weekly chart in REV(E), a better measure of trend energy, reveals the power behind the accumulation in copper (chart 3). Details of long-term accumulation and distribution that includes REV(E) analysis is normally reserved for subscribers.
Chart 3