China's official manufacturing PMI released by the country's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was unchanged at 51.1 (consensus: 51.0, DMB: 50.8) in September compared with August. The details were mixed with new orders declining slightly from 52.5 to 52.2 and export orders improving slightly from 50.0 to 50.2. Inventories were cut at a faster pace in September with the finished goods inventory component declining more significantly from 48.1 to 47.2. The new order-inventory balance improved slightly in September and remains relatively healthy and does not suggest any substantial deterioration in the NBS manufacturing PMI in the coming months.
The development in the NBS manufacturing PMI is overall consistent with the development in the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, which, in its final estimate for September released yesterday, was also unchanged month on month at 50.2. That said, there are also some important differences in the two manufacturing surveys. The HSBC/Markit manufacturing survey suggests that strength is currently mainly within exports (export orders component exceeded 54 in September) while domestic demand is relatively subdued. The NBS manufacturing PMI on the other hand suggests domestic demand was more resilient in September.
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