A range of leading indicators for China point to slowing growth ahead led by a fading boost from infrastructure, slower housing later in '17 and a peak in our export model. The credit impulse is sending a clear negative signal for H2. We continue to look for a peak in Q1 and a moderate slowdown during 2017. As a result China will contribute to a peak in the global business cycle in H1 and provide less support to Emerging Markets and commodity markets. The underlying downward pressure on CNY persists.
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