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Canada: Manufacturing Shipments Rose 1.7% In November

ByThe National Bank of Canada
Published 01/23/2013, 06:31 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
IMOB
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Canada

– In November, manufacturing shipments rose 1.7%. The prior month’s figure was revised up from -1.4% to -1.2%. Sales in November advanced in 12 of the 21 broad industries covered. Though new orders sagged 0.6%, the inventory-to-sale ratio fell to an eight-month low of 1.31. Shipments progressed 1.6% in real terms. The performance was better than expected but it only made up part of the prior month's slump (-2.2%).

Hence, while the increase in volumes should add to GDP in November, the weak start to the quarter means factories will likely to be a drag on GDP in 2012Q4. Two months into the quarter, real factory shipments are down an annualized 3.4%, their worst quarterly showing since 2012Q1. We still expect Q4 GDP growth to peg in below 1% annualized, which would make for a second successive sub-2% print.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, 35,386 homes were sold in December 2012, down 0.5% from the previous month and 17.4% from a year earlier. Four out of every five local markets reported year-overyear declines. Calgary was a notable exception (up 7%).

The results of the BoC's Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q4 indicated an easing in overall credit conditions an in both price and non-price terms of business lending. The Winter edition of the Business Outlook Survey (conducted November 19 to December 13) showed expectations regarding sales growth over the next 12 months had risen sharply, with the balance of opinion springing to 16 from zero in the Fall edition. This suggests the Canadian economy is unlikely to decelerate further from the sub-1% pace registered in the second half of 2012.

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