- Strong run continues
- Chinese data doesn’t hinder the rally
- Momentum may be key as the price approaches August highs
Oil prices are nudging higher again today, technically on course for a fifth day of gains in six in Brent – six in a row in WTI – although broadly speaking they’re just a little above the middle of what appears to be a newly established range.
Brent peaked near $88 a few weeks ago and bottomed around $82 last week as we await more direction on the economy and therefore demand. Data this week has been on the weaker side, although it’s the jobs report tomorrow we’re most interested in.
The Chinese PMIs overnight had something for everyone. Manufacturing was unexpectedly improved but still contracting at 49.7 while services were quite the opposite, expanding but at a slower pace than anticipated. All in all, it continues to paint the picture of a sluggish economy that’s showing few signs of bouncing back stronger.
Head and shoulders are not meant to be
The head and shoulders that formed over the last month appear to have failed before it even completed, with the recent rally taking the price above the peak of the right shoulder.
Source – OANDA on Trading View
While these formations are never perfect, as per the textbook, it could be argued that a decline from here could still potentially qualify as a second right shoulder, that may be clutching at this point. It’s peaked a Dollar above, even if it only looks relatively minor on the chart which suggests to me the previous formation – which is only complete with a break of the neckline – is now null and void. Perhaps I can be persuaded otherwise if the price heads south from here.
The question now is how bullish a signal this actually is. Are we going to see a run at this month’s highs? A break above $90? I’m not convinced at this stage.
Recent momentum looks quite healthy which could be a promising sign. But that will only be put to the test as we near the previous highs of around $88. If the MACD and stochastic keep making higher highs as the price approaches $88 then that would certainly look more promising.