Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The thing about R* is mostly that it doesn’t really make much sense when you stop and think about it; which you aren’t meant to do. It is a reaction to unanticipated reality, a world that...

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year DurationsThe past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion. This has spurred recession concerns...

Global bond yields rose on Tuesday, amid growing caution over the extent to which the European Central Bank will add stimulus to boost an ailing economy this week and rising hopes that Berlin could...

An inverted yield curve is said to be indicative of a recession. Why? Because the last 7 recessions were all preceded by an inverted yield curve. The yield curve we are referencing is the...

The bloom certainly seems to be off the Treasury Bond rose as of late. During the all-too-brief drop in equity prices, bonds and gold were the two safe havens. Both of these have been...

Are junk bonds about to send stocks a bullish message? A breakout test is in play that will go a long way to answering that question. Junk Bond ETF JNK is currently testing the January...

Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators raised their bearish net positions in the US 10 Year T-Note Futures markets this week following a sharp reduction...

US economic growth has been robust in recent quarters, supporting global demand through a period of weakness associated with a manufacturing slump and increased uncertainty. Indeed, it is not a...

Government bonds have experienced a massive rally over the past 4 months. The question is, could that rally be over or is it just ready to take a breather? Hard to say. Government Bond...

Yesterday’s release of the Beige Book survey from the Federal Reserve paints an upbeat profile, advising that the “the economy expanded at a modest pace through the end of August.”...

One of the main drivers of gold prices recently has been the plunge in long-term interest rates. Gold is very negatively correlated to the change in real yields: when they fall it is bullish for the...

Those that have followed my bond analysis since November have made quite a bit of money. While the stock market is basically in the same place it was back in the early fall of 2018 when we went long...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest...