Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Weekly CFTC COT Net Speculator Report | 10 Year US Treasury Note Large Speculator 10 year note positions push lower last week to lowest level since May 10 Treasuries: Large futures speculators...

Below is a weekly chart of the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury ETF (ARCA:TLT), which tracks an ETF tracking 20+ year US Treasury bonds. The chart shows a huge reversal candlestick, complete with a...

Is inflation dead? And monetary policy too? Portfolio allocation: long duration has not been enough over the past month. Amid an underweight of mortgage bonds, we keep our long duration versus...

The German 10-year bond has been pressured in the last two days, following nice gains since mid-September. There is support @ 150.50 and 150.05. Resistance @ 151, 151.35 and 151.55.German 10-year...

March/April I was quoted as saying the U.S. 10-Year yield won't break 2.72; August/September I said that it wouldn't break 2.66. Both held as the downtrend continued.At 2.09, a fresh downtrend is...

Yesterday’s markets were a rather sudden trip down memory lane for us macro watchers as echoes of 2011 and 2012 hammered prices. What I will say is that these moves do look like an over-reaction...

10-year Treasuries may revisit the 128 handle after a long time in order to breakout and make a new 20-month high. This level is closely watched and may provide big resistance, but a breakout...

The U.S. 10-Year T-Note has formed a rising wedge (pink) within a likely megaphone (bright blue on chart).The VWAP of the rising wedge is the same as the megaphone VWAP.It’s possible the...

Dovishness Begets Excessive Risk Taking by SpeculatorsThe Fed minutes came out this past week and they mentioned the strong dollar and less than stellar growth out of Europe, basically more over...

If you have been paying close attention to the stock market, market internals/breadth and bonds for the past three months, you’ve likely come to the same conclusion that I have.Signs Of...

As long as there’s been debt, a way to resolve unpayable debt has needed to exist.A passage from Deuteronomy in the Bible talks about creditors canceling debts every seven years. Throughout 19th...

This week the index-linked auction is split between SEK500bn in the 6-year bond (SGBi3102) and SEK500bn in the 10-year bond (SGBi3109). Breakeven inflation rates have come down somewhat since the last...

Weekly MOF data shows that Japanese investors have remained net buyers of foreign bonds in recent months. After a weak start to the year that saw Japan investors shed nearly $58 bln of foreign bonds...

My latest estimate for a retest of contract highs for the U.S. 10-year Note's December futures has come true. The treasury's strength may have to do with the recent weakness in other asset classes...