🎁 💸 Warren Buffett's Top Picks Are Up +49.1%. Copy Them to Your Watchlist – For FreeCopy Portfolio

BOJ, Not FOMC Will Be The News Next Week

Published 09/15/2016, 07:57 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
USD/JPY
-
XAU/USD
-
GC
-

Wednesday was not a good day for the US equity markets as there was a lot of indigestion again due to central bankers and expectations about what they will and won't do.

Given the inability of economies to organically grow anymore, the markets rely on central bankers whose utterances, or lack thereof, create a lot of strategic shifts in what downstream investments do; beginning with currencies and bonds, and then stocks.

It'll be nice when in the future, it's not the central bankers we focus on week after week, but something else. But it is what it is. I spent some time looking up currency ETFs last night and of course bonds.

On the currency front, every currency is lower against the dollar over the past few years, and so far, that continues as a trend everywhere. The BOJ next week looms large and could change that, as the long term bearish RT/RG is at a point where it either breaks and the downtrend is no longer a downtrend, or it regenerates lower.
USD/JPY Monthly Chart

From a purely neoclassical perspective, this should work lower. However, do note that rather than just touching into bearish RT/RG zone, the yen did a full retest, which says the yen was stronger than one would have expected. Maybe a subtle signal.

The yen is significant because a falling yen has been correlated with all other asset classes rising for years now. In short, the price of the yen has a significant impact in large carry trades around the world. More recently, it has become the litmus test of how traders/investors judge the success/failure of central banker policies.

Zeroing into the intermediate term time frame, we can see lots of bullish ABCD structures that have completed this year. Now, the most important one in years is upon us. USD/JPY Weekly Chart

Bottom Line
It's the Bank of England this week (Thursday), the Federal Reserve next Wednesday and Bank of Japan next Thursday which is likely the most important of the three. Expectations are nothing out of BOE (and it wasn't) and probably nothing out of FOMC but who knows what the Kamikaze Japanese do.

The latest press musings are for a new wrinkle in the market manipulations we have come to expect - something be called maturity-range adjustments which, when you boil it down, is basically the central bank changing the maturities of what they are buying. They would do this to effect the yield curve which is the spread between short and long dated maturities.

Since the central bankers are definitely the elephant in the china shop when it comes to bond buying, what they do and don't buy has a significant influence. If they allow the price of long dated maturities to fall due to lower demand, then they would be attempting to push that yield higher on the long end and widen the yield curve so to speak.

If this does take place, the question is how the market will interpret a rising long term Japanese bond. Would all the things we have seen go up with a falling yen reverse all or partially? That pretty much speaks to everything from gold to equities to bonds. Again, the probabilities do not favor this but occasionally the lesser probability event does occur and we have to be mentally prepared to deal with it.

In the meantime, the struggle with the bullish RT/RG's on the daily and weekly charts continue here in the US, as the lines in the sand for the dueling bullish and bearish RT/RG zones remain in the spotlight.

Bullish Retest/Regenerate Zones
◦ Daily range of 2134.72 - 2122.59 with volume of 3.025B
◦ Weekly range of 2134.72 – 2120.01 with volume of 14.85B

Bearish Retest/Regenerate Zone
◦ Daily range of 2147.58 - 2170.20 with volume of 3.84B

S&P 500 Daily Chart

The next larger directional move is likely to be a result of which way this breaks.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.