Australia 200 for Monday, January 19, 2015
The last few days has seen the Australia 200 Index ease back again under the 5400 level after making numerous attempts to clear it over the last month, which has seen it drop to a three week low below 5250. The short-term resistance level at 5500 continues to loom large and is placing selling pressure on the index as well as battling with resistance at 5400 too. Throughout most of November and December, the Australia 200 Index fell steadily lower down towards support around 5150 and two month lows before rallying back above 5400 again. Over the last few weeks the Australia 200 index has struggled with resistance at 5400 which has forced it lower time and time again. The 5400 level has been a major player for the last 12 months and the index must get back above this level to encourage more buying and bullish sentiment.
It enjoyed a solid resurgence throughout October after getting much needed support from the 5200 level, which has resulted in it moving back above the 5400 and 5500 levels, around a two month high. Throughout most of September the Australia 200 Index declined strongly from its multi-year high after running into resistance around 5650 back to enter its previously established trading range between 5400 and 5500, before falling further below 5200 and to an eight month low around 5120 a few weeks ago. Several weeks ago it received solid support from the 5100 level which saw it rally well to close out a couple of weeks ago.
Back in early September the 5400 level was called upon to offer support as the index desperately tried to stay in touch with its range, however it fell through there before rallying strongly back up to 5400. Up until recently, the 5400 level had done well and propped up price to keep it within the range. In its recent fall at the beginning of August it moved down to a three week low around 5375, however it received solid support at the 5400 level which has allowed to consolidate and rally higher.
Australian employers boosted payrolls in November and December by the most in any two-month period in the past eight years, reducing pressure on the central bank to cut already record-low interest rates. The number of people employed advanced by 37,400 in December following a revised 45,000 increase in November, making the biggest two-month gain since December 2006, according to data calculated by Bloomberg based on official figures. The jobless rate dropped to 6.1 percent in December from 6.2 percent the previous month, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today, lower than a median estimate of 6.3 percent. The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its benchmark rate at 2.5 percent for 17 months to help foster a transition to domestic drivers of growth and boost hiring as a resource investment boom wanes. Policy makers have been waiting for low rates to spur the economy beyond the surging housing market.
(Daily chart below)
Australia 200 January 18 at 23:00 GMT 5331 H: 5335 L: 5324
Australia 200 Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 5150 | 5100 | — | 5400 | 5650 | — |
During the hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the Australia 200 Index will be trying to reverse and rally back above the key 5400 level again.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 5150 and 5100.
• Above: 5400 and 5650.
Economic Releases
- 00:01 UK Rightmove House Price Index
- 00:30 AU New motor vehicle sales (Dec)
- 04:30 JP Capacity Utilisation (Nov)
- 04:30 JP Industrial Production (Final) (Nov)
- 05:00 JP Consumer Confidence (Dec)
- 09:00 EU Current Account (sa) (Nov)
- 11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends (19th-23rd) (Jan)
- EU EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels