The Australian dollar initially pulled back during trading on Tuesday but has rallied again later in the day to press a downtrend line that I have clearly marked on the chart. Beyond that, there is a 200-day EMA just above that will more than likely cause a bit of a reaction as well, so it’s only a matter of time before we have a serious fight on our hands.
Looking at this chart, it is obvious that we have a serious decision to make. What’s interesting about the AUD/CHF pair is that it matches up a “risk on” currency against a “risk off” currency. Because of this, I believe that the AUD/CHF pair is going to function as a bit of a “risk barometer of all markets.” Keep in mind that people tend to put money in Switzerland when things are a bit shaky, just as they tend to buy the Aussie dollar when things are going well.
Looking at this chart, if we do get a break down it is not only a negative sign because the Australian dollar is selling off while the Swiss franc is being bought, but it also would break down below the bottom of the tale of the daily candle stick and continued the descending triangle that I have drawn on the chart. At this point, it’s a bit too early to say whether or not we will break down significantly, because there is support underneath the triangle itself extending down to the psychologically important 0.70 level. However, the one main take away of this chart is that we have been drifting lower, which tells me there may be more negativity out there that people are willing to admit to. This pair will be one of the first places to pay attention to as soon as we get a significant move in the S&P 500, gold, or the currency markets on the whole.
The alternate scenario of course is that we break higher, clearing the 200-day EMA. If we do that, we should see a major “risk on rally” around the world.
