AUD/USD For Tuesday, June 17, 2014
After spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220, the Australian dollar has enjoyed a solid surge over the last couple of weeks which has returned it to a previous resistance level around 0.9425. It not only moved through the key 0.93 level but moved up to the resistance level and in doing so achieved a two month high. To start this week, the Australian dollar has eased back ever so slightly away from the resistance at 0.9425 to around the 0.9400 level. The 0.9220 level has repeatedly reinforced its significance as it is again likely to support price should the Australia dollar retreat further. Only a month ago the Australian dollar was placing pressure on the resistance level at 0.94 when it was able to poke through for a short period and reach a four week high in the process; however, in the last 24 hours it has surpassed those levels and achieved the two week high.
Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this period, the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time. The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year. For the best part of February and March the Australian dollar did very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although at the beginning of March it crept a little lower down to a three week low below 0.89. Towards the end of March however, the Australian dollar surged higher strongly moving to the resistance level at 0.93 before consolidating for a week or so.
For several months either side of the New Year the Australian dollar established and traded within a narrow range roughly between 0.88 and the previous resistance level at 0.90. Back in January the Australian dollar was able to rally higher pushing through the resistance at 0.90 to a one month high near 0.91, however it quickly returned to more familiar territory below the resistance levels at 0.90 and 0.88. After showing some resilience in early December moving to a one week high above 0.9150, the AUD/USD spent the next two weeks turning around sharply and falling heavily down to a then three month low close to 0.88.
Australia's unemployment rate will remain elevated over the next two years as economic growth stays sluggish, the central bank said Monday. "The Bank's latest forecasts are for employment growth to pick up gradually over the next two years," said Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Economic) Christopher Kent. "The unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated over that period." Unemployment is expected to be falling by late in 2015 "when we anticipate gross domestic product growth to be picking up to an above-trend pace," Mr. Kent said at an event hosted by The Wall Street Journal in Sydney. Mr. Kent said recent signs of improvement in employment creation were encouraging, but said the job market might just be catching up after a moribund 2013.
AUD/USD June 16 at 23:45 GMT 0.9398 H: 0.9403 L: 0.9396
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.9220 | 0.9100 | --- | 0.9380 | 0.9400 | --- |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD is remaining steady just below the recent resistance level around 0.9425 after surging higher from around 0.9370 to finish out last week. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents and it has done very well to recover slightly to well above 0.90 again. Current range: trading right around 0.9400.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.9220 and 0.9100.
• Above: 0.9425.
OANDA's Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has fallen sharply of late as the Australian dollar has rallied back to two month highs. The trader sentiment remains in favour of short positions.
Economic Releases
- 01:30 AU New motor vehicle sales (May)
- 01:30 AU RBA minutes released
- 08:30 UK CPI (May)
- 08:30 UK Input & Output Prices (May)
- 08:30 UK ONS House Prices (Apr)
- 09:00 EU Labour Cost Index (Q1)
- 09:00 EU ZEW Survey (Jun)
- 12:30 US Building Permits (May)
- 12:30 US CPI (May)
- 12:30 US Housing Starts (May)
- EU ECB Governing Council hold non-rate setting meeting
- US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (to 18th)