AUD/USD for Tuesday, September 9, 2014
The Australian dollar is continuing to decline slowly below the 0.93 level after falling sharply over the last 12 hours or so. It showed some positive signs to finish out last week as it surged higher again bouncing off support below 0.93 and reaching a new four week high around 0.94 before falling sharply again. A couple of weeks ago it enjoyed a solid week moving up from below 0.9300 to a then three week high around 0.9370 before easing a little lower to finish the week. For the best part of the last month or so the Australian dollar has traded close and around the 0.93 level after spending the preceding few weeks drifting lower from near 0.95. A few weeks ago it fell lower to below the 0.93 level level and down towards a two month low near 0.9220, before rallying well to return to the 0.93 level. Throughout July it generally slid lower from close to 0.95 down to its present trading levels around 0.93. It has done well of late to cling onto the 0.93 level after its sharp fall which saw it move from above 0.9400 down to a seven week low below 0.9240. Several weeks ago it was easing back below both the 0.9425 and 0.9400 levels with the former providing some resistance.
The Australian dollar reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 at the end of July after it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 at the end of June, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95. After the Australian dollar had enjoyed a solid surge in the first couple of weeks of June which returned it to the resistance level around 0.9425, it then fell sharply away from this level back to a one week low around 0.9330 before rallying higher yet again. Its recent surge higher to the resistance level around 0.9425 was after spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220. The 0.9220 level has repeatedly reinforced its significance as it is again likely to support price should the Australia dollar retreat further.
Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time. The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year. For the best part of February and March the Australian dollar did very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although at the beginning of March it crept a little lower down to a three week low below 0.89. Towards the end of March however, the Australian dollar surged higher strongly moving to the resistance level at 0.93 before consolidating for a week or so.
Australian job advertisements in newspapers and on the Internet rose for a third straight month in August to hit a 17-month high, offering hope that a recent spike in unemployment might prove temporary. A survey by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group showed total job advertisements rose 1.5 percent to 135,569 per week on average in August. That was the highest average since March last year. July ads were revised up to show an increase of 0.5 percent while ads were 7.7 percent higher than in August last year. Ads on the internet rose 1.5 percent in August, while those in newspapers showed a rare increase of 1.8 percent. "Recent trends in job advertising are consistent with a gradual turnaround in the labour market," said ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan. "Importantly, these developments appear to jar with the surprise jump in July's unemployment rate to 6.4 percent and suggest recent labour market conditions are steadily improving," he added.
AUD/USD September 9 at 00:01 GMT 0.9278 H: 0.9378 L: 0.9277
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.9260 | 0.9220 | --- | 0.9425 | 0.9500 | --- |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD is continuing to decline slowly below the 0.93 level after falling sharply over the last 12 hours or so. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents and it has done very well to recover slightly to near 0.95 again. Current range: trading right around 0.9280.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.9260, and 0.9220.
• Above: 0.9425 and 0.9500.
OANDA's Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has surged higher towards 60% as the Australian dollar has dropped sharply back through the 0.93 level. The trader sentiment remains in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 23:50 (Mon) JP CSPI (Jun)
- 23:50 (Mon) JP Key Machinery Orders (Jul)
- 23:50 (Mon) JP CGPI (Aug)
- 01:30 AU Housing Finance (Jul)
- 01:30 AU Lending Finance (Jul)
- 01:30 AU NAB Business Conditions (Aug)
- 01:30 AU NAB Business Confidence (Aug)
- 05:00 JP Consumer Confidence (Aug)
- 08:30 UK Industrial Production (Jul)
- 08:30 UK Manufacturing Production (Jul)
- 08:30 UK Trade Balance (Non-EU) (Jul)
- 08:30 UK Visible Trade Balance (World) (Jul)
- 12:15 CA Housing starts (Aug)
- JP BoJ release minutes