AUD/USD for Monday, May 25, 2015
Throughout last week, the Australian dollar fell sharply from above 0.8150 down to a two week low below 0.7850 to close out last week. It did enjoy support from this key level for a few days late last week before giving way. In the week prior, the Australian dollar enjoyed a solid week, which culminated in a new three month high above 0.8150 before easing lower. The last few weeks have seen the Australian dollar on a roller-coaster ride, moving from below 0.78 and up to near 0.82. A few weeks ago, the Australian dollar surged higher; however, it ran into resistance right around 0.7950 and 0.80 before easing slightly and consolidating in a narrow range between 0.7850 and 0.79 to finish out the week.
Back in early March, the Australian dollar made a statement and broke down strongly through the key 0.77 level, which then provided significant resistance for the following few days. It was also able to enjoy some short term support around 0.7550, which propped it up and allowed it to rally strongly back up to above 0.79. Throughout February, the Australian dollar made repeated attempts to move up strongly to the resistance level at 0.7850; however, it was rejected every time and sent back easing lower, which is why this level remains significant presently. Just prior to that, towards the end of February, the Australian dollar moved through the resistance at 0.7850 to reach a new four week high around 0.7900. In the second half of January, the Australian dollar fell very sharply and broke lower from the trading range that had been established roughly between 0.8050 and 0.8200.
Back in mid-January, it made numerous attempts at the resistance level at 0.82, only to be sent back often before finally finishing that week moving through this key level. In doing so, it was able to reach a one month high near 0.83, before being sold back down again towards 0.82 as the resistance and selling activity above this level kicked in. Over the Christmas / New Year period, the Australian dollar seemed to have been content with trading in a narrow range below the resistance at 0.82, which continues to remain a key level as it is presently provides resistance. The Australian dollar experienced a disappointing November and December, moving from resistance around 0.88 down to the new lows recently. For a couple of months from September through to November, the Australian dollar did well to stop the bleeding and traded within a range between 0.8650 and 0.88 after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September, which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
AUD/USD May 24 at 23:45 GMT 0.7823 H: 0.7833 L: 0.7808
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.7700 | — | — | 0.8200 | — | — |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the AUD/USD is trading in a very narrow range above 0.7820. Current range: trading right above 0.7820.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.7700.
• Above: 0.8200.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back above 60% as the Australian dollar has eased back below 0.7850. The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 23:50 (Sun) JP CSPI (Apr)
- JP BoJ Publish Monthly Report