Crude (21.07.2015) respected our last report and traded lower in the last month. However, we witnessed some bounce in the last few sessions, but the trend is still bearish.
Now crude is trading around $50.63 and as we can see on the chart, after breaking the major support area around $56 mark, crude fell very sharply towards $50 mark. Somehow, this level is providing some hope for bulls, but this is not the end of the crude bear market. Our long term chart is still hinting for a bearish move as it continues trading below 61.8% fibonacci retracement mark. The sideways trading provides time for indicators to adjust, and then a further fall could be witnessed.
On the fundamental side, a nuclear deal opens the door for fresh oil from Iran, while US inventories are still trading on higher levels and building more. US dollar is outpacing and thus putting more pressure on crude prices.
Based on above studies, we may witness more weakness in crude prices towards $48.50 and more in the coming trading session.
MCX -> S2(3097) S1(3160) cmp(3252) R1(3309) R2(3420)
Disclaimer: Above technical analysis is not a buy/ sell recommendation.