As I wrote about here and here, natural gas has showed a historical tendency to decline between June Trading Day #11 and July Trading Day #14 (6/15/15 through 7/21/15 this year).
As you can see in the first cahrt below -- with one week left to go -- (ARCA:UNG) and September natural gas futures are both slightly below their June 15 levels, but have been advancing strongly in the last week; so things still hang very much in the balance. The United States Natural Gas and September natural gas futures both tried to break out to the upside on 7/14, but then reversed back to the downside. As I write natural gas futures are once again trying to move to the upside, albeit early in the morning of 7/15. So the bottom line is that the end result for this particular seasonal trend remains hanging very much in the balance.
Courtesy: AIQ TradingExpert
Courtesy: ProfitSource by HUBB
From a trading perspective (and for what it is worth):
* As I wrote here I would have taken the money and run on that option trade a short while back. Yes, I understand that as the purveyor of this particular seasonal trend I should stick around to the bitter end and not take early profits and run away.
Sorry, it’s just my nature.