I’m somewhat upset about the past two days, both of which had me scrambling but never quite clicking with the correct development. So, the call for several days, perhaps a week, of difficulties all began to break down with the deeper gains in EUR/USD and lower in USD/CHF. Add to that, the gains in GBP/USD took me by surprise.
I had to look deep into the 1-minute and on occasion tick-bar charts to really delve into the very lower degree development. Obviously, this took come time, the Swissie being one of the most complex developments for a long time. The vast range of mini-minor moves was just a myriad of noise. I think I have resolved this and the good news is that I don’t think we’ll have a week of painful corrective structures.
Indeed, this tends to suggest dollar gains resuming from a lower area and then for some gains. This applies to EUR/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/USD, but not USD/JPY. This pair is making heavy work of development and it suggests a degree of caution. This tends to suggest there could be risk of EUR/JPY topping basically where I had been targeting. Thus, take tender steps in USD/JPY.
As for GBP/USD, it is in a middle area where we could see higher highs, or just some losses. It’ll happen at some point but it’s just the process of finally confirming the next move.
Finally, yet another shock in AUD/USD, I was truly surprised with the break above 0.7426. That implied, somehow, that the 0.7329 low final. From there we have seen a recovery. It’s deep enough although neither hourly or 30-minute momentum have given any bearish divergences. Therefore, allow for another blip higher and then watch for the decline to resume.