ING Economic and Financial Analysis

SVB reverberations continue. In the US, the FRA/OIS spread is at a tipping point and needs to calm to help generate wider calm. US financial conditions have tightened considerably as a consequence of...

The recent failure of two US banks, SVB and Signature, have understandably triggered a major re-appraisal of Fed tightening prospects. This has seen two-year EUR/USD swap rate differentials move to...

The commodities complex has been unable to escape the spillover from the SVB collapse, with large parts of the complex coming under pressure. Today’s US CPI print will be important for markets...

In the UK, all eyes are on Wednesday's Spring Statement and we believe there's little room for the Chancellor to row back on his previous plans for fiscal consolidationUS: Broad support for a 50bp...

The S&P 500 closed down 1.8% yesterday led by financials (-4%). Heavy losses for SVB Financial (NASDAQ:SIVB), a California-based lender to the venture capital industry, are raising questions over...

Chair Powell has sent a clear message: the Fed is back in the driving seat. At a very minimum, the Fed has given itself the option to deliver a 50bp hike from the March meeting. It's now discounted...

Comments from Jerome Powell during his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee were more hawkish than expected, which weighed heavily on the commodities complex, particularly oilEnergy: Fed...

Fed Chair Powell opened the door to a 50bp hike and hinted at a higher peak rate in his semi-annual testimony. This was a reminder that picking the top in the dollar rally remains too risky....

The February FOMC meeting saw the Fed dial back to a 25bp incremental hike. Jerome Powell's testimony shows that opinion has shifted again with the strength in data suggesting the need for a higher...

Energy – Saudi Arabia Hikes Its Official Selling Price for Asia and Europe ICE Brent was trading soft today after China set a modest growth expectation of around 5% for the year and avoided...

USD: How Strong is the US Economy and What Will the Fed Do About It? After a few weeks where US price data has taken centre stage, this week will all be about activity data and Fed speak. On the...

USD: A delicate balance Another day and another piece of positive US activity data. Yesterday saw a strong January retail sales release. Though boosted by warmer weather, the data still positively...

Data steepens the curves from the back endRates were pressured higher on the back of the much-better-than-expected retail sales data. A potential weather-related bounce in the data for January had...

Energy - Higher Demand for OPEC Oil Oil prices settled lower yesterday as the market digested the US SPR release announcement, while the YoY US CPI print also came in above expectations, which will...

The oil market finished last week strongly, rallying by more than 2.2% on Friday. This move higher came as Russia announced that it would cut oil supply by 500Mbbls/d from March as a response to...

A key takeaway from the recent fluctuations in major G10 pairs is that, at this stage, data matters much more than central bank communication. The mass of hawkish comments - ranging from modest to...