Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The second quarter of 2018 saw a continuation of themes apparent in the first quarter. In June the Federal Reserve continued raising rates to a federal funds rate target that now stands at...

Due to the Fed raising interest rates, the short-end of the curve is moving higher at an accelerated rate. The long-end of the curve is moving higher, but at a slower pace. The yield curve is...

The tax-free bond market has continued to benefit from the drop in supply so far in 2018. To recap, the end of 2017 saw a bulge in supply as issuers tried to beat the tax-cut bill that Congress was...

The big news of the past week is that according to Bloomberg, Russia cut its holdings of US Treasuries in half in the month of April.Although investors usually seek safety in US debt, Russia cut its...

Investing is about assessing probability and the performance of the Financial sector the last 5 months, (the Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLF) anyway) has been less than robust and is testing...

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large bond speculators advanced their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of...

Let me be quick to acknowledge that yield curve inversion can have considerable lag time before a recession. And for that matter, the U.S. Treasury bond curve can invert long before a stock market...

[This post is an excerpt from a TSI commentary]Conventional wisdom is that an inversion of the yield curve (short-term interest rates moving above long-term interest rates) signals that a recession is...

Note: We've updated this commentary with data through today's market close.Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended Friday at 2.93% and the...

Europe is weak, China seems to be weakening, trade and tariff issues have suddenly made everyone nervous even though the dollar amounts seem to have been reduced so does that mean Treasuries are...

The Federal Reserve held its latest policy meeting this week, and continued to indicate that the economy looks great in their eyes, and that it's full steam ahead with interest rate increases (at...

The long end of the Treasury yield curve is doing it again. It refuses to go along with the Fed’s tightening campaign, particularly, so, on Wednesday as policymakers were a slightly more hawkish...

This week’s bond review looks to the healthcare sector. DJO Global is a designer and manufacturer of products designed to help patients move – hip and knee replacement / implants, braces...

SummaryThe yield curve hasn't moved much in the last six weeks. While the corporate market has moved out in absolute terms since the first of the year, the spread to the corresponding treasury is...