US Small Cap 2000 (RUT)

WaveTech daily momentum for RUT (for this wave cycle that bottomed near mid April) peaked around (or just after) May 15, and yesterday was the lower high peak. In mid May, I expected this to be a higher high or similar but the projections kept weakening since mid May, and the rally into yesterday failed to materialize until after CPI, and that's too late to make more of a difference in an already defined pattern where RUT resumes selling momentum that daily chart's PPMs indicate continues until (USA) Independence Day. Such projections that many periods out (> 10 days on this daily chart) aren't to be trusted beyond a likely suggestion, and the weekly RUT PPMs indicate a bounce the week of June 24, and that's more reliable since only 2 tick marks (periods) out on weekly chart. So there's still hope. But I exited 2/3 of my small and mid caps in retirement and health savings accounts and all my IWM call options yesterday based on daily and intraday projections that overall point this decline into early June. My guess is small caps will lead large caps lower, it appears, like what I pointed out in early April. But I'm not betting on SPX heading substantially lower just yet and kept my SPX like holdings as is but did scale back one-third on NDX (Nasdaq 100) type holdings b/c it too looked more vulnerable to decline that can be bought back cheaper later. I'll update as time permits. At 9:40-9:50 AM, that's my update for today.

Futures now lower than before the PPI report. Last post. F this

So cooling inflation doesn’t even help anymore.

F wall street

Any rate cut this year should push small cap up. Once the first rate happens, others will follow, and index values are supposedto be forward looking. More games. I’ll hold

I sold most (based on value) of my IWM calls late morning, the more profitable lot, and I just sold my second much smaller lot around 2:45pm b/c the 30 min. chart indicates no move higher until tomorrow, and the 15" supports this. They cannot predict tomorrow. The 2- and 3-hour still indicate some strength tomorrow, but I'm not convinced it's worth holding on for another day or two. I'll look again in morning to see if there's a dip that can be bought. It's still too early to short RUT IMO, and it's still possible the daily charts get updated tomorrow and weekly on Sunday to indicate more bullishness remains, but I'm being cautious, having gained close to 10% in one day, although more so from my TLT calls, which I'll hold till tomorrow. Regardless, very happy about the impressive CPI today. It confirms what I've been seeing, which is inflation rate continues to decline even though it's hard for some to realize because falling inflation is not the same thing as falling prices. We don't want falling prices; that means the economy is unraveling, as in a depression. We want price gains so that there can be wage gains paid to workers to grow the economy.

I guess small cap doesn’t get anyone elected. BS

Just keep buying big tech until it pops. Fing unreal

F this

Tired of the downward pressure

No reason for this to sell off. Another rally coming

Man, it's not often session open raises my portfolio 7-9%, but those IWM and RUT calls I bought yesterday are paying off. RUT daily stays strong today, but tomorrow PPM-1 and -2 point down (PPM-3 up), and they are the most acute momentum metrics. So take some profits today. The 3-hour chart, which has been better in recent days at forecasting next day or two patterns, doesn't really see selling to become pronounced until around next Tuesday; so some sideways consolidation, and inability to go higher that eventually results in selling as next week progresses. That said, I'd not wait too long on profit taking, given the sudden selloff we saw yesterday and another day. Some hedge funds must be eager to short America's smaller public corporations. On a more positive note, ETF ticker 'CALF' (Pacer Small Cap Cash Cows), as interviewed on Bloomberg ETF IQ earlier this month, has more upside than RUT, and I bought shares of it during recent selloff in small caps. Also, good news are low risk bonds. TLT (long duration US Treasury bonds) is expected to rally through Thursday, maybe early Monday (doubtful but Friday more likely), with daily showing strength in TLT through June 25-28.

Wait for the profit taking shift from large cap to small cap, and then the short covering. New 52 week high within a week or two. There’s no reason for the Fed to f this up.

Like Tom Brady used to say in the huddle. LFG!!!

Let’s hope the Fed doesn’t spoil the party

Quite a change in momentum. Yesterday the momentum projection was supposed to improve today and tomorrow, but at open today, the daily RUT shows PPM-1 and -2 pointing steeply down while PPM-3 just barely up, changing after London open, which is where the selling was yesterday (morning while London open). Intraday momentum indicates improvement by this afternoon, decent chance this morning. But the rally around FOMC just keeps looking more disappointing and more of a recapture some recent losses, vs. real gains.

Wtf

rut is cheap,,,buy

12:30 update to WaveTech's RUT 3-hour chart still shows a steeply lower PPM-1 but a sideways PPM-2 and -3, so weakness but not a lot, based on the other charts, although there does look like last half hour (minimum, maybe longer) of today sees some selling too. In between, the trend looks upward, with some consolidation around 1-1:30 based on 15-min. chart. I expected more selling into lunchtime than this, but once we closed the gap from Friday, surprisingly, not repeat of selling, not yet anyway.

As of 10 A.M. WaveTech still indicates tomorrow and Wed. are green for RUT, based on daily PPM (price pressure momentum, a proprietary metric to evaluate strength or weakness of momentum waves) projections. This morning's 1- and 2-hour charts' PPMs (last updated at 9:30 AM EST) indicate the pivot today is midday after London close and around lunch for Wall St. However, the 3-hour chart PPMs point down into close, whether that means 3-hour sees something the shorter period charts cannot or just means that there's heavy resistance toward closing, so only a modest clawback, just be cautious. That said, I wouldn't wait till tomorrow to exit shorts (unless you're holding on till second half of June) or add longs before the FOMC pivot peaks midweek.

Ok, I think that’s about enough. Time for a rally.

buy

I mentioned on May 24 EOD before the holiday that there's more gaps to fill on the daily chart, and you can see we're about there. WaveTech daily and 2-3 hour charts indicate more weakness tomorrow before bounce around FOMC Wednesday. WaveTech daily did not forecast these last three days correctly until after session open, and that's not helpful, although as I wrote earlier today and yesterday, the 2-3 hour charts have been reliable not just for that day but a good portion of the next session, something I haven't always seen. Like on Wed. when the market soared, the daily chart still indicated more upside Thur. and Fri, a down Mon. and higher high on Tues.-Wed. before a decline in momentum. In contrast, the 2 and 3 hour chart momentum and moving avgs. indicated a big decline on Thurs., which materialized, and yesterday afternoon, they too indicated more weakness today, and they say the same for Monday. So I never exited my IWM (or TLT) put options in case the intraday charts proved correct. Similarly, I remember on Tues. afternoon, the intraday pointing to a stronger Wed. even though daily suggested weakness. I know that's because the daily helps indicate probabilities of support and resistance levels of 10, 21 and 40-period moving avgs. on each chart, more so than direction that day, but in general, they correlate the same, where a higher probability of strong support correlates to a higher price direction in that period. Anyway, I'm holding my IWM calls and puts, and probably exiting the puts on Monday if the 3-hour indicates to do so, and adding another lot to my calls to lower the avg. purchase price ahead of a midweek rally. Then buying puts again at some point in the second half of next week, unless the forecast changes next week based on FOMC.

Not sure I see am upside in the short term, so I’ll just hang on.

buy