Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Trailing yields have recently increased for most of the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns about the...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...

The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the days of a large premium look numbered. As evidence mounts that inflation continues to...

Last month we looked at how stock market volatility ebbs and flowsHow Monitoring Volatility Regimes Helps Anticipate Key Market Pivots through time. Let’s pick up this thread and do the same for...

Junk bonds are high-risk, high-yield bonds issued by companies with lower credit ratings. These bonds are also known as speculative-grade bonds or high-yield bonds because they offer a higher rate of...

If you have been reading my public articles on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) over the last half a year, then you would know of my expectation to see the bond market rally into...

Two hundred and sixty Fed meetings will occur between the issuing and maturing of a United States 30-Year Treasury bond. There will be 260 times when the Fed raises, lowers, or does nothing with Fed...

The US 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread, a proxy for the US yield curve, has rebounded sharply over the past couple of weeks (refer to the following daily chart) from more than 100 basis points below...

Turmoil in the bank industry and renewed concerns of economic headwinds are driving expectations that Federal Reserve's interest-rate hiking is at or near an end. In turn, the outlook has sparked a...

Back in August, I wrote about the U.S. yield curve’s deep inversion and why it was important. I said, “. . .This is why the U.S. yield curve is so deeply inverted. Speculators believe the...

Bank contagion has officially spread to international markets, raising fears that last week’s dramatic failures of U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank may be just the start...

US interest rates have been on a roller coaster lately, but there’s a case for considering the possibility that yields have peaked. The wild card is the Federal Reserve, of course. The critical...

Bonds are becoming attractive as investors are flying to safety. At one point last week, the yield on a two-year Treasury note was over 5%; that caught the attention of investors. A laddering strategy...

On March 7, we asked Will the Market Internals Turn More Bearish? While we focused mainly on Jerome Powell’s testimony, where he said,  "If the totality of the data were to indicate that...