Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...

Interest rates remain in the spotlight, with investors watching every economic data release and wondering when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates.Well, one way to gauge this environment is to...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak...

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?Have the forty-year pre-pandemic...

Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history?The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the United States 30-Year Treasury collapsed by over 39%. Many other...

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the...

Those who read our Daily and follow us on the media know that we talk a lot about risk gauges.The big focus for me personally is the relationship between the S&P 500 and the long bonds...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months.This all comes after a...

Thinking about the Treasury yield curve the night before the May ’23 nonfarm payroll report, eventually, the Treasury yield curve has to return to a positive slope, meaning that short-maturity...

I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had...

Last year’s famine has turned to feast in the bond market in 2023 as the riskiest slice of fixed income tops year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (May 17), based on a set of...

We have been vocal that long-term Treasury bonds are an excellent investment at current yield levels. However, timing the purchase of bonds will prove difficult as numerous headwinds may temporarily...

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...