Bonds Analysis & Opinion

For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the...

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a level well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the gap suggests that further increases in the benchmark rate are facing...

The global rise in interest rates may be peaking, a view that’s helped lift most corners of foreign bond markets year to date, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Aug....

Global bonds rocked by Bank of Japan changes, Fitch downgrade, and Fed's outlook. Long-term bond market sees rare turbulence. Investors split: Buffett and Musk optimistic, Ackman bearish. A triple...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...

Interest rates remain in the spotlight, with investors watching every economic data release and wondering when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates.Well, one way to gauge this environment is to...

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?Have the forty-year pre-pandemic...

Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history?The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the United States 30-Year Treasury collapsed by over 39%. Many other...

The Fed minutes showed that policymakers were divided and that the Hawks will still want to deliver more tightening. Fed Officials are concerned a tight labor market will make inflation tight...

Those who read our Daily and follow us on the media know that we talk a lot about risk gauges.The big focus for me personally is the relationship between the S&P 500 and the long bonds...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

Buyers pushed up prices for most of the major asset classes last week. US bonds were the downside outliers, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (June 9).Government fixed-income markets...

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months.This all comes after a...

Thinking about the Treasury yield curve the night before the May ’23 nonfarm payroll report, eventually, the Treasury yield curve has to return to a positive slope, meaning that short-maturity...