Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Fixed-income investors looking for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are still waiting, but that hasn’t stopped low-rated bonds from posting strong gains in 2023.The upside performance...

In Our Elevator Pitch For Bonds, we asked: “Is this time different?” Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a...

The German Bund has finally broken support in the bearish channel and targets the 127% extension of the March 2023 impulsive move higher. Following the ECB last week, and ahead of the FOMC this week,...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to trend higher in August, rising further above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three...

The 10-year notes market made a big reversal today following the CPI data. This move could continue following the US retail sales tomorrow as economists are expecting a downtick in US consumer...

Current yields continue to show signs of peaking, based on a broad review of the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. In each of our periodic updates of yields so far this year, the numbers...

What spooked the Treasury market on Wednesday, September 6th, 2023, when the 10-year Treasury yield traded up to 4.30% once again?Well the August ’23 services PMI report sure didn’t help,...

Through the above spreadsheet table, readers can take a look at various bond market asset class “annual” returns. A better comparison would be the CPI (annual) against the above...

Even though it’s hard for me to imagine some kind of “shock event” from the pre-open jobs report this Friday, I look forward to seeing how the market – – particularly the...

The previous article discussed the potential ramifications related to policy actions that China and Japan might take. These large U.S. Treasury bondholders could temporarily upset the Treasury market,...

The US corporate bond market is sending a reassuring signal to stock investors that financing fundamentals remain supportive. Spreads of investment grade (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond...

The Fed's minutes for their latest meeting held in July showed the committee's interest in raising interest rates further due to upside risks to inflation that are already well above their target...

“China, Japan, inflation, deficits, and QT, oh my!” – The chant of bond traders watching yields creep higher.Despite the highest yields in 15 years, some bearish bond traders think...

The last time you could lock in a real (inflation-adjusted) yield with inflation-adjusted Treasuries (TIPS), the world was still cleaning up the mess from the financial crisis. A lot has changed since...