Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Cash is no longer trash, courtesy of sharply higher interest rates. Trailing yields on risky assets are looking up too.The source for the change in payout rates, of course, is a run of rate hikes by...

There is a time to be long, a time to be short, and a time to go fishing.As inflation skyrocketed and the Fed turned hawkish, bonds were kryptonite for investors for most of 2022: it was time to be...

The entire financial system revolves around credit. At the heart of this system lies the ability of corporations and consumers to access credit, which is largely driven by the economic cycle and the...

During Refinitiv Lipper’s fund-flow week that ended February 13, 2023, investors were overall net purchasers of fund assets (including both conventional funds and ETFs) for the first week in...

US consumer inflation continues to ease, but less so than expected in January. Yesterday’s update suggests that the Federal Reserve will see the latest numbers as a new sign that pricing...

Last weekend we looked at the US dollar, which was beginning to show some strength as it is trying to find a bottom after a pretty hard selloff that can affect many different market sectors. Today I...

Through the recent gyrations, markets seem to lack the conviction needed to push new lows in rates. The resulting range-trading environment brings lower rates of volatility and better risk appetite....

When I started working in the financial markets, bond traders were the cool kids. The equity guys drove Maseratis and acted like buffoons, but the bond guys drove sensible style like Mercedes and...

One of the traders in the Forex Analytix community (Grasshopper) pointed out that the United States 10-Year Yields are developing an inverted head and shoulder pattern, which may lead (on a breakout)...

Usually with US auctions this strong, we're in the midst of a bond market rally with considerable room for more. But the downside moves have been tame in fact, despite the recession talk to boot. We...

I was going to write a technical column today about how the sensitivity of bonds (and consequently, lots of other asset prices) to interest rates increase as interest rates decline, and discuss the...

The 2022 macro narrative was dominated by the highly positive correlation between bond and stock prices (i.e. rising yields and falling stocks). In this period, exogenous central bank action drove...

In 2022, investors watched the Federal Reserve hike interest rates very quickly. And this in turn saw bond yields move much higher.Now in 2023, bond yields are beginning to moderate and pull back. We...

Interest rates have risen rather quickly as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation. Will the move be a case of too far, too fast?Today’s long-term monthly chart of the United States...