ICE US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCc1)

If remember correctly, by IBGE domestic is 21.7mb and domestic consumption growth in 23 was 7% vs 22. How IBGE states figures, that don't cover export and domestic ? :) For 24/25 it would be: 61.4 - (47+22) = -7.6mb.

IBGE previous number was 60.2mb, increase projected 1.2mb.

MGom From your ends, do you hear any size/quality issues ?

What Brazil exports in a single day

of what ?

Bull run

The sell off

And people maybe will wait 10 year to drink coffee

In Brazil, we have always worked on this. There are already plants that are more resistant than others to drought, rust, and nematodes (each one resistant to a disease or disease, but never to all of them). So far, they have not managed to make cacti produce coffee.

Short Dude. Situation when one Member (by ICO, producing country which is NET exporter) imports beans from other origin to fulfill the contract obligations is hardly economically viable, as default would be a cheaper option, macro speaking. The most informative and illustrative indicator to evaluate if export is bearish or bullish, is export vs stocks at destinations for given month, quarter, year, etc. If growing export goes in tact with growing stocks within specified time frame, then it is bearish within that time frame, if growing export is seen on constant or decreasing stocks - bullish. While being primitive, it is stays most simple approach. :)

On what timeframe would that be?

Daily/weekly

Thats why, do for oneself, not for the rest. Yours might not be the mines.

Josin, 4mb subtracted from even 29mb will give 25mb and so, 24mb R. Impact ! :)

Originally the reduction was 5 to 6 million based on speculations. They had people on foot there and they're saying the actual numbers are looking closer to a 3 to 4 million bag reduction if that. They also said brazil's conoline Robusta crop this year is fairly massive and they're not seeing any major crop issues. As always, final number won't come in until mid to late july in regards to the harvest but so far they said there is no indication of shortage. The whole "oh brazil isn't getting rain this week" is all speculative garbage, you don't want heavy rain during harvest as it'll delay harvest and potentially cause bean droppage and loss. Oh and for those who are down voting me, go ahead, My family has over 50 years in the business ( i have 20 years personally in it) and the brokers i've talked to control a large chunk of the us market. I can even tell you their future projections. They don't see the c market ever going under 170 again, but again they can't predict the future. Being that the coffee is so highly elevated, farmers around the world are already planting wanting to cash in on the high selling point. R market they said is not sustainable at this point and will eventually go back to 150 and under numbers. A couple years from now there's going to be a blow out as has happened during every other boom/bust cycle with the crops. It won't be like the 90's where coffee hit 50 cents a pound, but i do see potential for sub 150 if the crop is substantial enough. Thats my opinion though and only time will tell, but being i've been threw 8 or so of these cycles, lets just say i'm a betting man. Finally about the hog wash about consumption increasing. Thats anywhere from the truth. World economy is stagnating and now in the states because of the elevated coffee prices people are starting to push back from consumption at cafe's/restaurants. I'm personally seeing this so i can only imagine what it looks like for the big vendors like starbucks, etc. Consumption's looking very much on the decline at least in the states. Consumption of instant coffee is also on the decline as those prices are spiking because instant is mainly made with robusta. People need to remember just like soda, coffee is a luxury product, its not a necessity. People will choose food over drink and treat the drink as an occasional treat rather than a daily consumption.

5/15 min. did you see that? wooow!!

This moviment is crazy, I tought we would see that in the morning, because the n4 options expire today

Watch EUR/USD

I hope

you think it will drop under 210?

Good buy. Your eyes were fine, 2 dollars better than mines.

Robert, I don't know. 204 - 212 is important segment to defend 200 level. For the bulls (me including) would be better to have it untouched :). It is not super significant but matters...

They are dead from 2019. And then from 2023 :)...

there was a HCH in 5 min chart. The last peak mark the figure. Its already done/completed.

From Revista: The coffee harvest in Brazil, in turn, is progressing as expected, 23% of the Arabica harvest is complete, in line with the average of the last five years. The conilon harvest is also progressing well, with 42% already harvested, compared to 41% of the historical average. Despite the progress, the size of the sieve has not shown significant improvements, which may indicate a possible reduction in production.

For Vietnam is shows that as soon as potential issues have been admitted in April, export slowed in pronounced manner. Lack of beans, hoarding, both - view it the way you like, but for R it is a supportive factor. For Brazil, the fact that sieve hasn't shown significant increase for A means that market will get more cautious as 23 percent of the harvest is not 10% :). For conilon 42% already harvested means that truth about ES production will be revealed very shortly: and if there is any drop :) at all and if there is - of what size :)...

I guess that shorts are the ones mentioned to be cautious.