US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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currently we are on a cross roads between longterm upper channel and recently build local bearish channel. I should not have close, but was blind yesterday, so hunting in process

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Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago

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Brazil supports their producers by all means :): ABIC, in partnership with the Horus system, releases a report on coffee consumption in Brazilian retail between January and April 2024. ABIC monitors retail sales through more than two million invoices collected monthly at check-outs across Brazil, with the help of Horus. The numbers reveal that consumption of the drink in the first four months of the year registered an increase of 0.16% compared to the same period of the previous year. In total, 4,963,725 60kg bags were consumed by the domestic market. In the first four months of 2023, the volume consumed was 4,955,567 bags. When comparing consumption from Apr/24 to Apr/23, it is possible to notice an increase of 9.20%. From Mar/24 to Apr/24, sales rose 1.11%.

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Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago

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(It is just part of the consumption :). )

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To Mas 19 hours ago

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buy with sl 215 tp 224

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To Mas 19 hours ago

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cmon baby move so we can have nice day today :D

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sharp madoff 20 hours ago

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i have cashed at twenty, looking for a buy around six, have a nice day!

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ShortDude May 22, 2024 5:11AM ET

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I must apologize to all analysts who have a problem with coffee crop predictions and have to wait until harvest. The price of orange juice is at ATH. All because of a disappointing crop in Brazil, caused by heat waves around January. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? It only became clear after the harvest. It seemed that predicting the orange harvest was easier than coffee, it's a big fruit, but no.

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Viriato Magalhaes 21 hours ago

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No coffee reports today. Remaining USDA reports, scheduled for May are: Brazil, Vietnam, Philippines, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania - should be out until last day of May. And Conab should be tomorrow :). Some w-guys promise :) :) :) new heat records within next days from Texas to Brazil, including CA and Mexico (not necessarily coffee areas !). In general, high temps are still there...

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Viriato Magalhaes 20 hours ago

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Interesting Rabobank view at 24/25 crop as of April: total production 69.8mb, A production to grow 8.8%, R ... to remain stable, total production growth 5.7% vs 23/24. Three things worth of attention: 1) 5.7% growth from OFF to ON cycle is ... far from normal; 2) Does R production to remain stable means that some R problems are true ? :) 3) 69.8mb is in the lower part of the range 68 - 74mb. Besides, Rabobank projected that local roasters in Brazil will use more A in the blends due to narrow price diff between A and R :).

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Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago

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There is a study that researched the ability of arabica coffee tree (very regular one, not special drought resistant cultivars, etc) to withstand high temps and possible consequences. Study was based on LEAF temp of 49C within 45min and 90 min. Leaf temp may be !!!! air temp +12 - 20C FOR FULL SUN GROWN arabica trees (+5-7C shade grown) (depending on some factors, as wind, existing drought , etc). Study was conducted on 6 - 9 months trees, in perfect conditions, perfectly managed, soil temp was below 30C. Dropping pure scientific details :) (way too long to post), study had shown that: 1) younger trees and expanding leaves (growing) have been affected more than older trees and mature leaves; 2) on leaf temp for expanding leaves was higher vs on leaf temp on mature leaf; 3) treated trees (49C for 45min and 90min, two groups) did not produce any flowers and fruits vs their controls (same age, conditions, etc but not treated trees); 4) trees that did not produce flowers/fruits however IN THEORY should have more :) energy for growth; 5) recovery for 45min trees was shorter and damage was smaller vs 90 min treated trees, but both groups managed to recover in perfect (created) conditions - trees haven't died !!! The goal of the study was not to research the drop in production, but influence of the treatment on some specific photo/chemical processes, etc.

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Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago

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What comes from the study: 1) for full sun grown A trees (BRAZIL:)) 49C On Leaf temp would be: a) 49C - 12C = 37C air temp; b) 49C - 20C = 29C air temp; 2) exposure to the sun and so On Leaf temp for specific part of specific branch differs (many factors), most exposed parts of the branch are most risk; 3)nobody knows if for specific part of specific branch it was 45min or 90min of critical On Leaf temp, or MORE, or LESS but 45 min/90 min produced (by the study) no flowers, no fruits so, it would be reasonable to suppose that shorter exposure would create partial damage at least (or full damage to small part of the branch, etc); 4) trees will not die and it is seen from the pics/videos, circulating :); 5) if to believe the study :) - some droppy is in the cards :) as the temps have been recorded by the stations. Percentage is unknown as nobody measured On Leaf temp of every branch for every tree at every farm :) :) :), but as coverage was kinda wide, some small drop would be intact with the study and anomalies recorded. What is small ? In my view, whatever below 5%. Well, there were views that A will drop due to temps between 2 and 4% in MG. Study was made on A but it is unlikely :) :) :) that R is completely immune while A is not.

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Viriato Magalhaes 19 hours ago

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Important addition: study was based on ONE TIME heat treatment ( 1 group - 45min, other - 90min) ONLY. Thus, the effect of multiple treatments within short period of time was not covered. It may mean no changes at all re results of the study, or it may, as accumulated changes (damages) often produce different effect :).

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Mercury KG May 21, 2024 4:35PM ET

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Last year, I mentioned that potentially after the extreme temperature swings we saw during 2023, 2024, might bring more of the same. Never mind my silly speculation... I regret my fellow growers are having a difficult time.

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ShortDude May 21, 2024 4:15PM ET

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Check out the post on X from Marcelo Teixera. Soil moisture in the South Minas Gerais is the lowest in 7 years. It has been this way since the beginning of the year and continues.

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Rodrigo Faria 20 hours ago

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I don't understand how average yields work, USDA uses an average of 2 years or 1 (biannually), because in fact in mountain regions 30 bags/hectare in a year ON and favorable climate is very low.

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Rodrigo Faria 20 hours ago

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Yes, there are irrigated farms, but to give you an idea of the complexity of irrigation, I, as a coffee grower, don't know any farms with irrigation. I know producers who have achieved more than 100 bags/hectare (in years with favorable weather) without irrigation, but with no irrigation at all.

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Rodrigo Faria 20 hours ago

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Although, thinking about it, I know some people who can't manage 20 bags/hectare:)

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Viriato Magalhaes 18 hours ago

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Rodrigo, they calculate the yield for each MY separately but always combined for A+R, what always was/is kinda strange for many... assuming their access to the information. USDA projected for Mexico 5b/ha so, 20b/ha for many origins would be sky high ! :) :) :)

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Viriato Magalhaes 18 hours ago

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You made a good point re 20b/ha, as many in the trade, as soon as they get info about 100b/ha or so, automatically extrapolate it on most farms, assuming tech/management level in Brazil... That's how some people believe in 100mb next season, etc...:)

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ShortDude May 21, 2024 10:43AM ET

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Viriato, it looks like the market agrees with your calculations :)

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Coffee Arabica May 21, 2024 10:43AM ET

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ShortDude ShortDude Where is your country?

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MGom May 21, 2024 10:43AM ET

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Viriato, but Colombia has growing production in 2023 and a higher forecast in 2024, what would be the problem they are facing ?

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ShortDude May 21, 2024 10:43AM ET

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Poland

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Coffee Arabica May 21, 2024 10:43AM ET

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MGom MGom Colombia had some dry weather to start the year but don’t forget, Colombia is also very unique in that it has coffee growing all year round, so many climates, etc. Some farms have some lower yields, but not all and not necessarily for both of their harvests, etc.

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Viriato Magalhaes May 21, 2024 10:43AM ET

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MGom Colombia may have a good 24/25 season and USDA may increase its projection going forward - I have nothing against it. Colombia was not on the list in relation to high temps (or not covered as much as other SA countries) and I absolutely don't want to say that ALL other origins got hit. And besides, among those that got hit, not each area got hit, not equally, not all farms in each area got hit and those that got - not equally, etc. But lots of origins got hit, and some areas/ farms got hit and so, by science a particular reaction should follow for a season or two... Some videos show very well that, as example, in ES most exposed parts of branches got hit the most (or only ,visually, fruits wise) but no doubts that vegetative function was stressed and so, effect may reasonably be expected also next season. To what extent depends on many factors (nutrition as one of them) but not every origin is that advanced as Brazil so, it is reasonable to suppose that lots of other origins will be affected stronger. If to consider that from 2021 consumption added 10mb, it is Brazil that should fill the void. It will be seen with more clarity after other reports will come out, but basing on those that already did and assuming revisions made and combined result, other origins would be stagnant at best. As you said, let's wait for CONAB and see if it will admit there are issues or not. :)

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Nikolay Borisov May 21, 2024 6:09AM ET

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testing area 212-214 /on 4h

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Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 4:09PM ET

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Colombia was expected, figure was not clear but it was expected since Dec 2023 WM and T report. It has to be assumed that when previous USDA projection for 23/24 production was made, it was made on the production numbers, projected in 2023 reports and then some adjustments (if any) in World Markets and Trade report of Dec 2023. Thus, while projections for 24/25 are still projections only, reduction on previous 23/24 (22/23) numbers, in fact, form almost final :) view at 23/24. So far projections 24/25 are flat on gross reduction on 23/24.

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Kenan Hajdari May 20, 2024 4:09PM ET

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She along with some keyboard bull warriors are champions

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Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 4:09PM ET

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Short Dude. Consider, the one has 50ha farm, trees of different age, possibly different clones, different exposure, high density, different stage of ripening, size, weight, etc ... How he will calculate ? Experience/Intuition based only, unless you want you evaluation to be +/- 25% :). You need some certain percentage to be collected to be able to give a reasonable numbers...

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Viriato Magalhaes May 20, 2024 4:09PM ET

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Conab is out Thursday :).

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ShortDude May 20, 2024 4:09PM ET

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Apples. It's a lot easier with apples. You see them on the trees or not. They are nice and big, colorful or not. You don't have to wait for the harvest to know what the crop will be. ;)

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Rodrigo Faria May 20, 2024 4:09PM ET

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Not even apples, unfortunately we are out in the open and anything can happen: hail, heat, windstorms, drought, pests. Of course, with apples the period is shorter, unlike coffee where we practically have a harvest every 2 years (in harvest 0 pruning).

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