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US Coffee C (KCH6)

Real-time derived
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KC·Derived·USD
KCc1·ICE·USD
KCc2·ICE·USD
KCc3·ICE·USD
KCc4·ICE·USD
KCc5·ICE·USD
KCc6·ICE·USD
KCc7·ICE·USD
Currency in USD
379.28
-4.02(-1.05%)
Real-time Data·

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

CoffeeNinjaRyan in his informs that ECMWF model points to excessive rain (about 150-200 percent of normal) over the next two weeks in coffee areas of CA, Colombia and ... Vietnam. He notes that persistent rain during this period of time may increase pest/disease pressure and to slow the harvest.
( Ryan is in this industry for ages and before he switched to speculating, he was in physical business and in different origins. He says may as this is the only correct approach with the weather :), but if potentially it would be nothing important he would never refer to it :). He is very pragmatic.)
No, not at all :). The possibility of delayed harvest and lower quality for some percentage are not his main points :). His main point is the risk of higher pest/fungus infestation due to too intensive rain for too long and as the result the lower yield going forward. CA and C know very well what it is. I would add to it that if to believe in current cycle :), too much rain for too long would not be impossible also for Brazil. But nobody knows about the weather until it happened :). Everyone is based on the fact that coffee tree (and modern cultivars especially) is very resilient. And this is true on average, but what many people miss is the fact that resilience is not equal high yield :).
You're right, Viriato. Here, due to excessive rainfall at the beginning of 2025, second-half production has fallen between 40 and 50 percent compared to the previous year. Now we're experiencing heavy rains mixed with sunny days (the most optimal conditions for fungal growth), which has triggered a strong presence of rust and anthracnose, also compromising next year's production. In conclusion, the climate has become extreme, with very dry seasons in Brazil and very wet seasons in Colombia.
It'll be 100k, and the price will still go up. The manipulation continues
Stocks mean nothing these days, C was at $2 something years ago and stocks were at same levels…
closing gap maybe... we ll see tomorrow, but i know it will fall hard anytime soon
Coffee Arabica - ecf stocks were NOT at the same level. Certs were similar, but diffs were tenderable, hence certs were clearly gong to rise. not really the same picture
Just testing - Bad News - US ICE inventory today pending 60,547 Bags, the highest pending since August 6th 2025, which was the date the 40% tariff on Brazil took effect.
Brent - you know how much 60k bags count in ice certs... as far as diffs don't allow a 600k+ to go to the term, I don't see a resolution of the certs issue
Bad News - US ICE inventory today pending 60,547 Bags, the highest pending since August 6th 2025, which was the date the 40% tariff on Brazil took effect.
May the admin is from FL and Dolphins fan ? :)
may be:)
Is that bullish or bearish?
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What is happening??.?
That s not true, if that happened would mean war to US and u know what uncle T would do... plus US always have some military in the Canal
I agree. I just wrote what I hear
Mr. Trump .. the Pacificator ?
This coffee is not normal. A huge price scam.
i don’t get it, with tariffs the cost would be 50% more, why it supposed to go down?
Bruno, the tariff effectively removed Brazil from the US coffee market. Simple supply and demand - Supply went WAY down without Brazil and demand stayed static. Now that the US has access to affordable Brazil coffee, the price should decrease with the increase of supply.
i disagree, without tariffs the price will alteady be lower without market going down
Im very tempted to enter from Here. It could really go any direction
Short or long? ;-)
You can make money off no volatility you know…
The first 4h-candle today was at least a bearish engulfer. Let's see, if this means sth...
Re Vietnam, 3 factors have to be taking into consideration: 1) if the export will start reflecting current disaster; 2) evaluation takes time, it is not one week task; 3) depression 15 is still forecasted to affect Vietnam so, it may add a bit to existing problem (or it may not). There is a triangle formation currently on weekly (R) and if it will break out to the upside in a valid manner, R may surprise with a new ATH soon :).
From SB report: Full Fiscal Year 2025 Highlights Global comparable store sales declined 1%, driven by a 2% decline in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 1% increase in average ticket North America and U.S. comparable store sales declined 2%, driven by a 4% decline in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 2% increase in average ticket; International comparable store sales were flat, driven by a 2% increase in comparable transactions, offset by a 2% decline in average ticket; China comparable store sales declined 1%, driven by a 5% decline in average ticket, partially offset by a 4% increase in comparable transactions Consolidated net revenues increased 3%, including on a constant currency basis, to $37.2 billion GAAP operating margin contracted 710 basis points year-over-year to 7.9%, primarily due to restructuring costs associated with the closure of coffeehouses and simplification of our support organization, deleverage, investments in support of “Back to Starbucks,” which were largely in labor hours, and inflation. Non-GAAP operating margin contracted 510 basis points year-over-year to 9.9%, or contracted 500 basis points on a constant currency basis.
Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Highlights Global comparable store sales increased 1%, primarily driven by a 1% increase in comparable transactions North America and U.S. comparable store sales were flat, driven by a 1% increase in average ticket, offset by a 1% decline in comparable transactions; International comparable store sales increased 3%, driven by a 6% increase in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 3% decline in average ticket; China comparable store sales increased 2%, driven by a 9% increase in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 7% decline in average ticket The company had 107 net store closures in Q4, ending the period with 40,990 stores. This included 627 stores closed as part of our restructuring plan announced on September 25, 2025, of which over 90% were in North America. At the end of Q4, stores in the U.S. and China comprised 61% of the company’s global portfolio, with 16,864 and 8,011 stores in the U.S. and China, respectively Consolidated net revenues increased 5%, including on a constant currency basis, to $9.6 billion GAAP operating margin contracted 1,150 basis points year-over-year to 2.9%, primarily due to restructuring costs associated with the closure of coffeehouses (stores) and simplification of our support organization, inflation, investments in support of “Back to Starbucks”, which were largely in labor hours, and deleverage. Non-GAAP operating margin contracted 500 basis points year-over-year, including on a constant currency basis, to 9.4%
The goal of the SB is to support/increase the revenue and profit margin, as of any business. Store closures are normal when you grow very intensively and the competition grows in tact with you :). SB is nothing special quality wise what can't be said about price :). The price diff between regular M&P shops and SB in relation to cheapest drink is often about 30%, not touching the food :) that SB sells...
The price got rejected beautifully at the 380-resistance zone - not quite the 0.78-fib though. hope, the 4h-candle closes red to start a tiny short position.
But it also rejected 374 so its not a full correction yet
That's correct
BAD NEWS: Starbucks Full Fiscal Year 2025 Highlights: North America and U.S. comparable store sales declined 2%, driven by a 4% decline in comparable transactions. The US Stuckbucks stores' average coffee comsumption quantities down by 4% over the Fiscal Year 2025.
Im out. Until i see a clear correction. This is nonesense. Manipulation to the fullest!!!
Calm down, there are only two things that drive the market…
Viriato and Helmut?
hey Viriato, i did not kniw that you had that power, froend mine use to say that bad roads and nonsense people never ends
BAD NEWS: There was no rain in Dak Lak these two days. For the next two weeks, the main themes in Dak Lak will be "harvesting" and "drying". For the coffee market, this means the "weather risk premium" on the supply side should be stripped away. Unless a new sudden tropical storm forms, based solely on the weather, it will be very difficult to use "flooding" as a justification to push Robusta prices higher.
Robusta Coffee had a red candle yesterday.
SeattleHusky no damage in Vietnam as far as coffee is concerned.Human lives matter most
I think this is going to fall hard one day soon
Dedicated to Helmut :). The disaster in Vietnam hit Dak Lak and Gia Lai, for now Dak Lak is considered being hit the most. The event was called unprecedented and historical in terms of its intensity and duration, historical means really very rare. While the evaluation of the damage will be known on a later basis, it is not a brainer to suppose some percentage already now. Be it 5%, 10%, 15%, etc - this is not the point. The point is the event took place within specific cycle, which is famous in terms of supplying :) such events. By some models coffee areas in Brazil should get tons of rain within couple of weeks or so, just a lot of rain, nothing else. Now, try to imagine that somehow (not this time, just an example) one day :) Brazil got way too much rain for way too long (God Forbid !!!) ? As Brazilian coffee landscape is very different (flat areas, slopes, valleys) any consequences would be possible. No talk about wiping coffee from the map :), but the effect would be serious, especially assuming current density in Brazil. Again, absolutely no any indication that it should happen but current cycle is very special and Vietnam just confirmed this fact.
Feeder cattle and live cattle futures both plunged to their daily limit.
What does that have to do with coffee?
That coffee is the only manipulated stock left since cocoa is also -60%
To compare cattle and coffee is the same as to compare fish and oranges :). Feeder cattle is low liquidity market mainly for professionals. To compare feeder cattle and coffee is the same as to compare oil and oats. :):):)
Closing longs and opening shorts
I would wait for the right candle. On the 4-hour chart, we also have increasing volume during the price rise (bullish), and the price is currently trying to break through the 0.61 Fibonacci level (bullish). I would like to see us reverse at the latest at the 0.78 Fibonacci level (382). That would also fit well, since there is a larger resistance zone waiting in the 380–390 area.
But I'm just another retailer with some wins and some losses ;-)
maybe you are right we will see tomorrow how it opens
It will eventually start to fall, or is it not going to?
It will hold this level forever. No movement. No ups no downs. ;-) Sorry, but we do not have the opportunity to look into the future.
To be or not to be...
The argument of the price not dropping after tariff relief… well, now that March contract is the price, and its much lower, was this contract change the way the market inadvertently decreased? Or will we see a gap fill up this week? Tariff relief came at the same time as FND so does that make it tricky to conclude how the market actually responded?…
The perception was that tariff(s) is the last obstacle to remove :) as it was the main cause of the recent advance... If true - the reaction should be inline with the action and it would be adequate to see the close somewhere around daily low and follow through this week. The actual situation is that in the absence of the real catalyst market usually selling/consolidates. All this doesn't mean that market can't get lower - of course it can, but it means that tariff was not one and only obstacle needed to be removed. If the history is any guide :), it is a perception of production in relation to existing basis what forces the market to get back to the business as usual, and this perception was usually :) solidified pre-harvest/harvest when it becomes absolutely obvious that current production is gonna be great. This period starts in spring, now it is November and it is impossible to predict in November the 2026 production and especially in current climatic cycle. The situation in Vietnam confirms it very clearly...
No tariffs will support consumption without any doubts, even if the big retail will not get back :) to the previous prices immediately, online business will force them to adjust.
i guess in not questioning tariff results as much as I am curious about the technically of the large downward gap that occured due to contract rollover and/or tariff exemptions. And if anyone has any predictions on if the gap will close or are we entering into a new lower channel.
Idk part of me wants to long but fundamentally it makes no sense with the tariff relief news
Open long at 371. Tp 380 sl 365
as often it's the case, two opposite reading can co-exist: no tariff could be an incentive to higher consumption in the US; it could shift back demand from CA and EA to Brazil, softening diffs to tenderable parity.
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Coffee will go up on Monday
I think it might open lower but who knows
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Why?
because coffee is now 50% cheaper
"Bolsonaro has been taken into custody after being under house arrest. A judge justified the decision by citing a risk of flight and tampering with the ankle monitor of Brazil’s former president.” New tariffs incoming? :-D
Hahahhaa Brazil will get nuked, as Nixon would say
BAD NEWS: China's Import of Coffee (Jan - Sep, in MT): A. Green Coffee Bean, 168354.97 (2025) - 171486.99 (2024), Down by 1.83%.
B. Roasted Coffee, 5622.46 (2025) - 9087.56 (2024), Down by 38.13%. C. Coffee Beverages, 30472.81 (2025) - 37613.45 (2024), Down by 18.98%.
TOTAL COFFEE (includes A, B, C): 204450.24 (2025) - 218188.00 (2024), Down by 6.3%. Data Source: BEEDATA
If brazilians are smart enough they will not decrease export prices foe 40% as most of you claimed the higher price does not destruct demand in US, so why shouldn brazilian now not take free 40% they got. Just dont lower price and you have extra unexpected 40% price increase :)
Dont believe their stories...they are well financed last 3 years...they profit at 1 usc a lot and at 4 usc their wet dream came thru last 2 years
...anything else they say is BS
Tariffs will be reinstated! Lula is not going to change his posture towards the US.
...
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