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US Coffee C (KCU5)

Real-time derived
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KC·Derived·USD
KCc1·ICE·USD
KCc2·ICE·USD
KCc3·ICE·USD
KCc4·ICE·USD
KCc5·ICE·USD
KCc6·ICE·USD
KCc7·ICE·USD
Currency in USD
289.30
-10.80(-3.60%)
Closed·

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

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Targeted level of Reuters poll of abt 3 months ago reached well before expectations (year end).. Nobody at that time thought it will be possible
Arbitrage and options lead market specs Activity today USD 200 MT arbitrage and opt levels 292.5 / 290 but .. we have s long week end in USA
just full margin sell this crap to 140 repeating always same story big hype up and then endless fall
Another 15-20 cents down ans then a rally to 450-500...because heavy hype is ready to start. Listen carefully.
Yea, the 15 to 20 cents down is possible maybe even more, but it ain't going anywhere near 4 or 5. Keep dreaming though. We're already in the start of a down cycle. This stuff was a balloon full of hot air for way too long. Thing finally popped. This hits 2.75 and there's higher chance it'll be 2 by next june.
There were seasonal cold records broken in Argentina, Chile with a very rare snowflakes (as event) in some parts of Argentina and Bolivia and heat records are ongoing in EU and many other countries. Anomalies are always a function of some changes in traditional patterns what means there is something that causes those changes. The winter is not over in SH and nobody knows what and when may arrive and of what degree. I 'm not saying it must happen, but if to suppose that at some point reversal in heat anomalies will happen, it would be not that hard to suppose that cold anomalies may surprise the same way as previously hot :) did, in terms of amplitude and duration. Argentina, Chile, Bolivia are not influencing coffee areas :) in Brazil clearly, but the anomalies, related to cold in some parts of those countries show that more cold anomalies may be around the corner and the degree is unknown. In 2022 priced topped in Feb and bottomed in Jan 2023 after what it made intra top in April (!!!) 2023, PRE-HARVEST, and retested the recent low, which retest ended in Oct 2023, after what the run up took place. The complete pull back took about 20 months. :) Oversold weekly stoch really points to another 15 - 20 points or so down, however not necessarily as daily stoch is also very oversold, technical bounce wise.
Hmm never doubted the false speculation….there is plenty of supply.
Morning reversals are the best. If/when
Ichimoku magnet (in my wildest dreams)
I'd think 307 is a magnet..
Thank you guys for your comments, ideas and bringing volumes. As the observer and architech, Now the prices are heading back to 377 levels. Love you all, leaving you the message so you can benefit from the movement.
nice dream
Some sort of recovery could be expected (in consideration of the long week end for Independence) but max area maybe 315/320
As predicted. Now we see which scenario plays out. Normalization or crash, don't pay attention much to the names as they're what the outputs were called from chatgpt after i gave it the current scenario and had it compare to previous crashes. If prices stay between 2.75 and 3 (from now until October) we're in normalization scenario. Crash would be under 2.75, dropping to 2.50 and lower. Anyway, as it stated, by July first we would break the 3 mark and we just have, the question now is if it stays in the 2.75 range or if it breaks lower. We'll see in the next week or so how the tariffs are going to affect things on or after the 9th.
It will be interesting to watch!
freefall continue seems like
its very possible. normalization scenario was at a 40% probability and crash scenario was at 30%. So either is possible at this point, its just based on how far the dip hits that increases probability.
Robin, have you bought Friday's whatever timeframe candle ? :)
:):):)
Sorry, I thought I had posted. I was tempted on Friday. I am waiting. I gave a long from much higher but not too exposed. Looking to add longs again, but trying to guage a bounce trade ir a longer term long.
viriato, all estimations clearly indicate that what your saying to be wrong. there will be plenty of supply this year.
300....magic
Besides EU, it's very hot in Sumatra. :)
It would be fair to say that month is closed. Monthly stoch and money flow indicators moved down from overbought segment. For all previous historical tops it was correlated with the price move of roughly 225 points down until monthly stoch got really oversold and some price low was formed. The only exclusion was 2001 - 2011 advance during which uptrend has continued. In 1977 and 1997 the level of 200 (that remains line in the sand :) ) was reached in ... June, in 2011 - in Feb. At the moment there is no basis to consider that current trend will repeat 2001 - 11, but if it will, the best spot for the intermediate low would be Dec/Jan. Nobody knows and remains to be seen :), but Dec (or Jan post X-mass) look perfect, as export/consumption/stocks situation will have plenty of time to get clarified. For now daily stoch is really oversold and weekly reached oversold level too. Personally, I would be very happy to have a bounce from now :) somewhere into 320, basis Dec :).
i would like to see 296 again and then buy
you bought ?
yes
Daily reversal candle and bounce exactly from fibo 292.x level.
The worst seasonality period is about to end too.
lol, yea def the lines in the past predicting the future!
lol, yea def the lines in the past predicting the future!
Panic attack soon
You or PS?
You mean PMS ? YES
Coffee crops are being damaged by heavy rains and climate change events. Price forecasts are set in 366 now
?? Do not Watch too much science fiction please!
I don't know about exactly 366 but bounce of 30 - 40 points from today's low technically would be nothing impossible :). That would bring it to 320-330 area :), basis Dec.
Volumes today not existent so far. Maybe due to the various discussions at WOC in Geneva or second quarter targets by specs. COT could tell something this evening
Specs with option and arbitrage in full control
300-280, is bouncing off the top off historical all time highs, does the price structure fall back into the milee or do we see a new range like cocoa?
new range as cocoa. that's for sure. considering all factors. specially climate change and the devaluation of currencies consequences of central banks bailing out printing money because of COVID
Interested to hear what sort of volumes you're roasting. We've had quite a lot of pushback by our highest volume/tightest margin wholesale customers (2-300k+ lbs/yr.) Smaller local places seem to understand the price increases more than national clients. We're doing okay, but it certainly seems like demand is slowing for most roasters in our large-ish market city.
There is no doubt that at some point rationing has started and that's why USDA has shown such a small increase in a global consumption. But rationing is not cancelling as many have thought previously :) and besides, rationing is not equal crash in consumption. Big brands got their market shares reduced as private labels jumped up but to fulfill private labels beans are still needed :). Assuming 1-2 cups a day for a home consumption and increase 30 - 40% for a pack, which for a regular coffee would be around $2 in absolute and seeing how all other product groups/services have gone up in price, such an increase for a regular pack can't crash the demand :).
today 310?
today 310?
Viriato, USDA is about history and the market is looking to the future. If weather permits next year's harvest will be much better. No one will now buy more than the necessary minimum, everyone will wait for prices to drop.
USDA projected higher R number and lower A number, what correlates perfectly with the reversal of the A/R ratio and A outperforming R from some point :). USDA did not hesitate to show R record number :) but kept A lower. USDA is never a panicker as you know :)...
USDA increased global consumption for 25/26 vs 24/25. Not much :) but nevertheless, no matter product is more expansive, inflation, etc, etc. This fact means that RETAIL consumption is doing just OK, isn't it ? And only a really lazy one doesn't have a private label now :), what means that margin for entry product is also just fine as no brand premium is paid anymore :). USDA referred to higher volume of fertilizers, that have been applied due to higher prices and that was obvious, assuming fertilizers/coffee price ratio. But make no mistake: in current environment at the price of 250 average producer will not keep the same budget for input as at the price of 300, etc. Thus, for A the situation is very complex still and nobody knows at the moment for how long it's gonna stay this way :). Nothing significantly has changed for current A production in Brazil comparing to couple of months, it changed a lot for 2026 due to rains, etc. But 2026 production is in one year ... :) One thing is clear: without a proper catalyst price will not spike and the catalyst is not there at the moment, a simple fact. But a general situation remains tight and that means that there is a real chance for the base to stay elevated :). We're gonna see it soon ...
Cherry on top: USDA confirmed rising consumption in ... US. :) There were a lot of talks as you remember... :)
just leverage sell free money :P
292 today ?
pro badge
If it breaks 300 it will free fall to 275
USDA kept the same number for A and R for Brazil 25/26, A - 40.9mb, revised for 1.7mb the 24/25 A figure, revised for 1.1mb Vietnam 24/25 total number, raised for 2.3mb Ethiopia 24/25 number. In short, global 24/25 production was revised down for 500kb, global export was revised down for 800kb.
25/26 global production is seen higher for 4.3mb to 178.7mb, global exports higher for 700kb :). Global production is seen higher on, roughly: Vietnam - 2mb, Indonesia - 550kb, Ethiopia - 900kb, CAM - 300kb, Brazil (+3.1mb R and -2.8mb A) - 300kb, roughly 4mb...
Assuming that roughly harvest starts in May and ends in August, time wise it is kinda half the road :) passed and so, some data is collected, etc - USDA did not change its view. It doesn't mean that result can't get better - it can (as it can get worse :)), but it means that USDA did not see anything special to change its initial projection.
Interesting facts. Ethiopia: 1) last data, 23/24 was 9.13mb, 24/25 - 10.6mb, previously 23/24 was projected as 8.35mb (22/23 - 8.3mb), 24/25 was projected as 8.3mb; 23/24 was adjusted to 9.13mb, 24/25 to 10.6mb; 25/26 is seen as 11.56mb; 2) thus, it would be correct to say that 23/24 was adjusted for 830kb and 24/25 was adjusted for 1.5mb; 3)11.6mb in 25/26 vs 8.3mb in 22/23 is ... roughly 40% increase in 3 years; 4) in its 2023 report USDA stated that coffee sector in Ethiopia is challenged by many important factors, etc; 5) in its 2025 report USDA stated that adjustments higher and 25/26 projection are based on favorable weather and improved practices, higher price, etc - that would imply that either all magic happened in a blink of an eye or USDA has some issue with the data :), assuming the same person was producing both reports. I may be wrong but I don't remember Brazil being able to increase the production for 40% in 3 MY :):):). Vietnam production of 31mb remains to be really seen as the last several years projections for Vietnam have been all revisions and adjustments :). Thus, if just to consider V and E as a questionable factor for NOW, there was nothing bearish for A in this USDA report.
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