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US Coffee C (KCZ5)

Real-time derived
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KC·Derived·USD
KCc1·ICE·USD
KCc2·ICE·USD
KCc3·ICE·USD
KCc4·ICE·USD
KCc5·ICE·USD
KCc6·ICE·USD
KCc7·ICE·USD
Currency in USD
397.22
-2.58(-0.65%)
Real-time Data·

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Further prood Brazil controls the entire market.
Proof
SOLVE THE BUG INVESTIN!!!1
Guys y is it fluctuating bw 374 and 400
It's a bug on this site. Price is switching between two different contract prices.
Financial players probably start to realize that with Consumption not increasing and recently forecast for a good Brazilian output next year (Stonex and Safra) .. It comes the time tò think seriously to try to have this levels granted for current e forward deliveries. By the way Safra increased 25/26 crop too
Maybe you guys totally forgot about it: Coffee price began to fall as soon as Trump announced another 40% tariff on Brazil Coffee.
Since then, the price has risen by 45% in 41 days without any significant correction. So the tariff has definitely influenced the price increase.
Good Luck to all the Bulls
Thanks Victor, SeattleHusky has been drinking…
There's something wrong.
Is this correct 381,55 move?
Is it Sofware error or sth like that?
This page is switching between the contracts I guess.
Technical issue infortunately
Retesting the 50MA at 389 would be great. Just a tiny little bearish consolidation after the massive red candle a couple of days ago. But yeah, the market is disappointed about the outcome of the tariff-deal...
Why was the general cancellation of 10% tariff on coffee seen as bearish? that's a 10% discount on all coffee cost of production compared to one week ago.
Pal, you're a roaster, correct ?
I'm just someone having experience as a small roaster, exporters and trader
Thank you !!!
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Well done trump
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You see? I told you this would go up!
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Let's see rest of the day
Someone said removing 10% tariff is bullish. Case 1 --- 10% tariff exempt for all countries: 10% x 100% = 10% of total tariff removed. Case 2 --- 40% tariff exempt for Brazil coffee: 40% x 33% = 13.2% of total tariff removed. (33% of US Coffee from Brazil).
What? Can’t understand your logic where did you find the 33%, lBrasil was 50% -10%=40%
Lower entry price provides the basis for more comfortable price per cup what is clearly the support for consumption and so for demand. What importers will do after getting good old days rules back ? They will get back to a previous planning model, which model was based on the sufficient stocks at destinations ( proportionally to the market situation) to protect their market shares. The idea that tariff removal will crash the market is based on the assumption that Brazil holds a lot of beans due to the adjustment, that took place because of the tariff. But besides USDA :) other forecasters provided disaster numbers for A production in Brazil in 2025: as example, 37mb - is a DISASTER production for OFF crop and assuming the expansions on stimulative price especially. Cecafe post-harvest export numbers show the beans are getting shipped in a good quantity what shows that Brazil has no issues selling beans... :) USDA will clarify its view on 2025 production in December :).
Guys will it rise today
Marty McFly says: YES!
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It seems that only the 10% tariff was removed, remaining the 40% tariff on brasillian coffee. This may be bullish as it's a deception for the market.
sure lol
Definitely bearish as well, really will be wild to see wat market does tomorrow…
Definitely bearish as well, really will be wild to see wat market does tomorrow…
Viriato..what happened with weather doom and total climate collapse ?
The one should use the model that works best for him :). If a flat earth model works for you - then it's just perfect ! :) and if you better stick to it ! If you will look at the chart you will clearly see that real pullback started in ... in the end April 2025 pre-harvest and it was perfectly within the historical concept of the expectation of a decent production. Pullback stopped and up-trend resumed in the beginning of August. 40% tariff was announced on July 30, effective August 6. In August the production became clear - no record in the pipe :):):)... The price climb to over 400 and then pulled back in September. It pulled back quite a lot no matter tariff :) and it was perfect in terms of historical context - flowers, etc. Then it became clear all is not perfect :) again and the price climbed again, all repeated, etc and ATH got sold. If you would pay attention to the chart, you would see that current tariff removal announcement caused :) pullback much more shallow :) than the one in September and the one in October, etc. That's a macro picture :).
you better stick to it***
it is what happens when you have no arguments
Make me rich coffee. I have been patience
US liquidated repo tariff on 200+ agricultural products, including: coffee, cocoa, tea, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, beef, tropical fruits, fruit juices and some fertilizers. It is not 0% across the board for now, but it is a industry changing move. In practice it means -10% in Brazil and Columbia, -50% in China, -30% in Vietnam etc. Bears Monday expected to act wild, I have no idea where to put TP for my shorts. Not investment advice.
MKI, that is indeed investment advice. Thank you!
I'm a simple guy. People drink coffee, when the price goes down (obstacles removed on the way to the desired cup :)) should people drink more or less ? Price gets more affordable as tariffs are removed, should they drink more or less ? Importers got back their previous much more comfortable terms, should they import more to have some reasonable stocks or not ? In a connection with all that should demand decrease or increase ? :) Brazil shipped over 4mb in October to whom ? To zombies ? To aliens ? :)
remebering my father quote; if you dont have nothing to say stay quiet
The 10% tariff exempted on Friday is for Coffee from all over the world, which included Brazil. Beside this 10% tariff exempt, Brazil said it hopes to reach a preliminary trade deal with the US this month, as relations between the two sides improve. Brazil-US trade deal is still on the way.
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Your statement is misinformed and incorrect on all fronts. Please stop spreading rumors.
nick you think it will increase or decrease? You seem to comment the opposite in every post you reply to
The US is now finalizing a deal with Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America. On Thursday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira to advance ongoing negotiations, with the goal of completing the agreement before the end of this year.
The feeling at Sintercafe is tariff change will have little effect. 450 is expected in the Mar26 contract. Some believe the Friday dip is the current low and we will see 450 before anything lower than Fridays dip.
Cecafe September/October figures and November up to date figures show the good volume. If to assume that US roasters hesitate to import from Brazil on existing tariffs, then those figures are backed by other importers. What would imply that US roasters switched/started switching to other sources, what would point that global equation is adjusting to the current reality and the global balance remains the same. The fact that tariffs are cancelled, all and forever (40% on Brazil including) will make US importers comfortable again and retail prices comfortable :):):) again and as the result US consumption will get support. US importers will get back to Brazil and the things kinda will get back to a new normal.:)
Now, some perfectly normal technical moves aside (in the absence of the new pronounced catalyst(s)), why would the price crash (meaning to crash crash :) ) until the understanding of the new production will become visible and clear ? Well, the common sense says :) and the chart confirms :) that this period of time (when it becomes clearly and undeniably visible ) starts in ... April. From now and until then there are 4.5 months :).
So you think a few fixations can outweigh the massive volumes in spec contracts that will trade this news? Not saying its def opening down, really impossible to say… but I dont know if fixations can outweigh a massive story on tariffs, or positive weather, etc.
No one was expecting the tariff executive order yesterday. Even if it is only 10% less which no one seems to be sure if it that or the fully 50% it still significant. We werent expeting anything from brazil till the end of the month or early december. This is bearish
This 10% exempt is not only for Brazil coffee. It's for coffee from all the countries.
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wrong.
Apart to following close the tariffs issue and impact, It Is worth to mention the 2026/7 projection from Safras and Mercado,
Lots of bearish macroeconomics happening. With the execption of ICE stock history calculus ans cherry picking.
10% Tariffs lowered only for Brazil coffee?
Coffee is exempt from all tariffs as listed under Annex II.
Exempt from Tariffs on Executive Order 14257 Annex II. Its still on included tarrifs on Annex II of Executive Order 14323 which is the 40% Brazil one. White House website exclusively says this modification is for EO 14257.
Bloomberg 15.11.2025 "We’ll keep working to reduce it further,” Vice President Geraldo Alckmin told reporters in Brasilia on Saturday. “In the case of coffee, it makes no sense, 40% is still high.”
So Tariffs on coffee are suspended as Trump stated yesterday evening US time. Is it set in force or not ? Does anybody has any news support for it ?
yes. This link goes to the annex for Executive Order 14257 which is the 10% one. The additional 40% tariff is EO 14323. This annex does not reference that.
and why the other products that were on this list before this Friday didn't pay the +40% tariffs from Brazil?
EO 14323 has a different Annex. Honestly, I am no expert here. Just learning as I go. There seems to be widespread confusion on this.
For those wondering about the 40% ad valorem tax on Brazil and how it pertains to the recent EO exemption: Coffee falls under Annex II, items listed in Annex II are exempt from the new 40% ad valorem tax, which was imposed on Brazilian imports. This annex lists specific products that are excluded from the reciprocal tariff, such as certain energy products, chemicals, minerals, and goods already covered by Section 232 tariffs like steel, aluminum, and some vehicles.
they add coffee on annex II i mean
But what I could have found it has been lowered only 10%, meaning 40% is still in force for Brazil coffee.
Coffee KC, items under Annex II are expect from reciprocal and punitive tariffs. All coffee worldwide is tariff free when imported into the US.
In October Brazil exported (Cecafe) 4.141mb of all types, A - 3.385mb, total amount for A was 1,453,312,893.00 USD what makes it on average 429USD per bag and 3.25USD per lb. October export was roughly 10% higher than September export. In June the average price per bag of A was 435, in July - 413, in August - 383, in September - 391 USD (October 429USD). September A export figure was roughly 30 percent higher than in August, October - roughly 14 percent higher than in September, Sep and Oct are post harvest months. Thus, demand is alive and ... well :).
And as tariff is cancelled :):):, the road to buy Brazilian beans is ... all clear. Now we're gonna see if it means anything and if it does - what exactly ... :):):)
( Well, somehow it looks that only initial 10% have been removed :). We'll know for sure on Monday. :))
...
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