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US Coffee C (KCZ5)

Real-time derived
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KC·Derived·USD
KCc1·ICE·USD
KCc2·ICE·USD
KCc3·ICE·USD
KCc4·ICE·USD
KCc5·ICE·USD
KCc6·ICE·USD
KCc7·ICE·USD
Currency in USD
408.65
+16.60(+4.23%)
Closed·

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

The Brazilian government is considering reducing the import tariff on U.S. ethanol —currently 18%— in exchange for the removal of the surcharge imposed on Brazilian coffee and meat.
Same date one year later....rally started on Nov 3, 2024 from 240 up to 460....meaning lets hope this rally will catch ATH at 640-660
Demand is not on the rise, or else starbucks who is the biggest roaster in the world wouldn't be pulling back from 7 days to 5 days. That right there is a major alarm going off. The current numbers don't match the fundamentals, its only be driven by fear mongers and by ice supply, nothing else.
Coffee KC, read Alex Cataldo, and you may learn something
Jefferson -demand on the rise- in what planet are you living. Obviously you are also a keyboard coffee entrepreneur.
Option levels!!
No one said anything about the rains of the last few days, where crops were destroyed by hail, in full fruit growth process, this is a relevant factor for such a rise! The weather is very strange! As I said in September, when the market fell absurdly below 370 where it had a strong support, this fall due flowering, speculators selling coffee flowers, which is no guarantee of a full harvest, until harvesting we go through many processes, such as frost, ice rains, drought, which greatly affects that beautiful and perfect image of the crops of September flowers! Operate news from producing regions and graphic analyses such as mirror screen on screen and anticipate the movement! I'm still firm in the analysis I did a few months ago, like the one I did about coffee reaching 400usd when I was still at 200 on 04/2024 beginning of the harvest. Increase in consumption 2% per year, reported deficit of 15mi, which may be much higher than the reported number, to regulate numbers it would need 4 more years, and do not wait for mega productions, due to the planting record last year, of 100% left 60% planted, rest the sun burned and many producers will not have resources to replant! "Support and Demand" per hour Demand is far above supply, while not reversing, prices have reached unimaginable peaks! Pump and Pump, Dump has no space for now
What could it be ? May be Vietnam and possible hail in SP/SDM ??? :)
:)
Coffee is now the catastrophic commoditie! Only disaster and a lot of people cheering for more and more!
They found out that woodoo calling dooms prophecy on coffee is more profitable then growing it :)
Re-entry to the channel would be at 399/398.
Specs seem alone. Low volumes and searching for some external help. Tariffs impacting hard USA .. consumption elsewhere not exciting... certified stocks currently has no Sense for many physical users .. rains in Brazil not mentioned which could be the supporting news?
Why do you find certs are making no sense for many users? I still see them as the cheapest washed arabicas on the spot. Being so small, this stock could evaporate with just a few large buyers.
This Is the reason. Once evaporated you Will buy the spot or afloat. Or there are someone that Will start to deliver in large scale ( enough coffee could be purchased around) pushing mkt low? If there Is somebody thinking that industry Will be able tò increase prices without any demand consquences? I suggest everybody tò talk seriously with industry and trade and listen carefully
I agree with you. But I see this point to be bullish, as structure could exacerbate the backwardation and give a bullish signal to algos and risk/premia spec.
Coffee went straight back into the bear flag channel on 1h-chart. Currently testing the top of the channel again. If this holds today, expect further downside movement...
ICE certs down again 13k lots
Reuters reported that Starbucks will shift its U.S. roasting/packaging plants to a five-day schedule “due to lower demand” for its premium beverages—an upstream sign of softer demand.
Starbacks is loosing in competition for a while already and for the obvious reason: quality. But no matter what you have to differ their retail business and the wholesale business. Their ground/whole beans coffee is no different than any other... the competition has grown dramatically within last decade... There is no doubt that rationing is taking place but 2025 consumption numbers will be known only ... in 2026. :) Helmut can describe Starbacks quality in details :):):).
Cheackpea, chicory, industrial beans....and a touch of coffee + coffee aroma to smell...thats Starbucks in capsuls
Others are not better...even worse
Well, we need someone else to lose money so we can make money. Am I correct Viriato?
If the environment is not free, then the question that comes to mind is: to what extent the information from that origin can be trusted ??? :)
How abt. rain during monsoon season?
If you mean Vietnam, the comments I did read sounded like this: never before in the country's history. :):):)
For those that don't believe in manipulation - 'Nationwide coffee inspection ordered to end speculative hoarding and boost export volumes', the article mentions, 'Minister Addisu highlighted that some farmers and suppliers appear to be withholding their coffee from the market, anticipating even higher prices. More concerningly, reports suggest that some exporters and intermediary brokers are deliberately buying and stockpiling coffee to manipulate supply and prices artificially.' and further announced 'To tackle this, we have instructed immediate inspections across the country beginning Saturday night to ensure the flow of coffee into central markets' the minister said. He called on the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA) to strengthen penalties against those found hoarding coffee or otherwise harming the market and the product’s quality.
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Cool now do this in brazil too and see just badly they are witholding
About consumption in 2024, from USDA report Coffee and Tea Market Brief in South Korea, date Sep 9, 2025, summary: With growing interest in cafes and home brewing, both coffee and tea consumption has increased in the Republic of Korea (ROK). Notably, the annual per capita coffee consumption in the ROK was 416 cups in 2024, making it the highest consumption rate among Asian countries. In addition, although tea consumption is lower than coffee, with a per capita rate of 0.16kg per year, it is becoming increasingly popular due to health-conscious consumers and shifting preferences towards natural and organic products. The ROK’s tea market reached 1.6 trillion won in 2024, an 8.78% increase from 2023. Top competitors include Brazil and Columbia for coffee, and India and China for tea. And a bit more from the same report: The consumption of coffee in South Korea is notably high, with per capita annual consumption reaching 416 cups in 2024 according to Euromonitor. This figure is more than double the global average and marks the highest consumption rate among Asian countries. The widespread availability of cafes enhances accessibility, making it easy for Koreans to enjoy coffee frequently. According to the Ministry of Interior and Safety, as of the end of 2024, there were nearly 79,350 coffee shops in the country. Tea consumption is significantly lower than coffee, with a per capita rate of 0.16 kg per year. However, tea is becoming increasingly popular due to health-conscious consumers and shifting preferences towards natural and organic products. USDA refers to Euromonitor data :).
For now, 2024 is the last year the actual data is available.
Maja recently posted about torrential rains and their logical consequences for current crop in Vietnam, in relation to the affected areas. R amazing crop may come being not that amazing at all ...
100%.
Maja is bern critcized the last couple years, but looks like she was rigth all the time about the kack of coffee in world, again: it is very simple, when you have too much coffee tge proces goes down, like was until 2021(around 85cents). When the opposite happens like now, the prices go high
which lack of coffee? when there wasn't enough of coffee to buy? could you point a moment?
448.8…
Cecafe shows roughly 4.1mb certs in October vs 3.9mb in September, sealed roughly are 3.7mb in October vs 3.6mb in September. :):):)
Cecafe confirms: there is coffee and there are buyers :).
Wait for strong movements on Monday
If Tariffs deal at all, maybe 10 percent down...again if at all
Which percentage of tariffs will be lifted ? Certainly not all 40percent
suspended 40% like china, only 10% remains, that in best case, a total exemption in coffee is on th table too
Dont forget president said : we have to make coffee a little bit cheaper. ....a little bit
You've got to love the Brazilian's. No denying they have a consistent message across commodities. CNN Quote; 'Brazil shrugs off US-China soybean deal as seasonal trade - Farmers say Beijing’s renewed US buys won’t upend Brazil’s exports, but tight credit and dry weather cloud outlook.'
Dry weather?
In the 1-hour chart, we can see a strong downward move followed by a weaker, upward-sloping consolidation within the channel. Since the price entered the channel from above and is showing only a modest upward recovery, the classic behavior of a bear flag is clearly visible. When a price enters an ascending channel from above, it breaks to the downside in 60–70% of cases (according to studies on chart patterns by Bulkowski). I remain bearish.
Moving my sl to 387
Nevermind leaving it at 80
The snail trail in KC looks like its going to be decided by RC, RC chart says up.
Changed the way at the end of the day..
Is it more easy for a buyer have news seller's in physical market? Or is easier to a seller find a new buyer? Another question, if the tariffs got out, will we have a rush to buy coffee meanwhile the next crop is going not so good?
On 1h chart you see a tiny little bear flag channel is forming....
Tightening sl to 384 lets seee if its able to hold
...
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