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The financial markets have been fighting the Fed since October of last year, especially since the start of this year, in two ways. The first involves bidding-up stock prices in anticipation of a ‘Fed...
There have been some positive surprises in economic data recently, and markets are busy trying to digest what this means for the Fed. Terminal rates are now priced at over 5% in the US and around 4%...
Cash is no longer trash, courtesy of sharply higher interest rates. Trailing yields on risky assets are looking up too. The source for the change in payout rates, of course, is a run of rate hikes by...
The week of February 13th is significant, with CPI, PPI, retail sales, a ton of Fed speakers, a 20-year bond auction, and a 30-year TIPS auction. Last week, rates broke out after a 30-year bond...
Through the recent gyrations, markets seem to lack the conviction needed to push new lows in rates. The resulting range-trading environment brings lower rates of volatility and better risk appetite....
In our last market update, I wrote about how market technicals were improving. That improvement has continued, and the market is displaying strength that we have not seen in over a year. Here is a...
Usually with US auctions this strong, we're in the midst of a bond market rally with considerable room for more. But the downside moves have been tame in fact, despite the recession talk to boot. We...
It will be another busy week for the market, with CPI on Tuesday, the Fed on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and BOE and ECB meeting on Thursday. Additionally, on Monday, there will be a 3-Year...
D.R. Horton shares are up on a knee-jerk reaction to inflation data The company had a decent Q4, but the outlook is dimming Falling sales and backlog point to a weak year in 2023 If you are wondering...
The US housing sector has entered a cooling down phase, giving rise to sometimes very alarmist comments that this is the beginning of a significant collapse, comparable to the failure during the...
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