US inflation was low before the pandemic started and as the nation heads into what’s shaping up to be a rough winter of resurgent Covid-19 the odds appear low for higher pricing...
Predicting the end of the secular decline in interest rates has been a hardy perennial—and perennially wrong. Given this history, any observer of bond yields must be wary of...
More than a year ago I reviewed Mr. Market’s offerings for yield-hungry investors and the results were meager, at least in comparison with historical payouts. How does the...
The U.S. dollar's surge alongside gold has eclipsed the equity market rally as the key development in the capital markets. Even the traditional seemingly safe-haven yen was no...
The fear trade that’s animating Treasury buying is alive and well. Although you might have missed it by focusing on the soaring US equity market, the rush into safe-haven...
(Wednesday Market Open) The Fed might steal the show today with minutes from its last meeting and a host of speakers approaching podiums. Otherwise, focus remains on coronavirus,...
Amid the worries about the coronavirus and its impact on the global economy, the U.S. yield curve has briefly inverted again. Recession, anyone? And what exactly does the inversion...
Just as a photon is both a particle and a wave, the dollar is both fulcrum of the foreign exchange market and a currency itself. Both features were on display last week. The dollar...
The Fed cracked open the door to cutting rates later this year by emphasizing that the central bank is determined to avoid the kind of low inflation that's plaguing several...
Happy Australia Day & Chinese New Year Good Morning! We kickoff the day with New Home Sales at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and...
We need another Volcker Shock Raise as inflation is picking up again.
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No amount of rate hikes can or will stop this. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon and can only be stopped by reducing the M4 money supply
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sell
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Why would any buy long term bonds? You can always pivot out of the 3 Month if need be. Paging SVB…
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The pivot is dead. With China using Yuan for trade those dollars formerly used for that trade will flood back to America and via P = (M*V)/Y where P is Aggregate Price, M is Money Supply Level, V is Velociy of M and non-linearly related to M, and Y s GNP causing massive inflation.