The projected risk premium for the Global Market (GMI) held steady in July at an annualized 6.0%, unchanged from the previous month. That’s a comparatively elevated level vs....
This month’s upcoming release of preliminary second-quarter economic data is expected to show an impressive acceleration in growth following Q1’s strong rise in gross...
The 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply yesterday, dropping to 1.37% — the lowest since late-February. The ongoing decline offers more support for arguing that the reflation...
The second half is getting underway. Five events should be on your radar screen, but do not lose sight of the broader context. This year, the dollar has often experienced near-term...
Fear that the new mutation of the COVID virus will slow the global recovery has sent ripples across the global capital markets. The foreign exchange market had the clearest...
The capital markets appeared to be in a holding pattern ahead of this week's big events, including the US CPI and the ECB meeting. Equities were little changed, but with heavier...
The US dollar was enjoying broad, even if not large, gains today following yesterday's recovery from three-year lows against sterling and four-year lows against the Canadian...
While the ADP forecasts a gain of 512,000 private jobs in Friday's jobs report for March, the bond market didn't budge at all on the news. Hot and Cold ADP forecasts run hot and...
Today is the big day, of course. Powell time again. Two hours before the market closes, the announcement rolls out, and half an hour later, the Fed chair does his press...
The Fed pledged to hold interest rates low for a very long time. What about the long end of the curve? Yields Reveal a Mini-Revolt On the Long End3-month Yield: 0.04% 1-year Yield:...
We need another Volcker Shock Raise as inflation is picking up again.
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No amount of rate hikes can or will stop this. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon and can only be stopped by reducing the M4 money supply
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sell
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Why would any buy long term bonds? You can always pivot out of the 3 Month if need be. Paging SVB…
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The pivot is dead. With China using Yuan for trade those dollars formerly used for that trade will flood back to America and via P = (M*V)/Y where P is Aggregate Price, M is Money Supply Level, V is Velociy of M and non-linearly related to M, and Y s GNP causing massive inflation.