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United States 10-Year Bond Yield

NYSE
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
4.653
+0.054(+1.18%)
Delayed Data

United States 10-Year Discussions

Market can price in 50bps hike but with 75tn dollar debt, fed can never increase rate. 1% rise will cause additional 750bn interest payment. So Fed has increase QE. So if they raise interest rate, they will have do more QE as the real borrower is US govt and govt is never deterred in borrowing by raising interest rate. Raising interest rate works only if the borrower is private. If they dont raise interest rate, private players will take more risk driving prices even higher. So fed has to choose between inflation and govt borrowing. it is more likely , fed will choose govt and does not raise interest rate
Unless they want the time to be Now.. a controlled smash .. start war.. and selling War-Stuff to Europe against Russia.
 Given the inflation is coming from wages, productivity gains from industries will not work. Only way US can get some sort of inflation relief is by china devaluing the currency. But that will accentuate chinese real estate problem. China will not do that unless the US demand collapses. So many moving parts, its very difficult to predict
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