By Alexandra Valencia
QUITO (Reuters) - Drug-related violence that has rocked Ecuador in recent years is once again the biggest issue for many voters in Sunday's presidential election, with President Daniel Noboa touting some success but rivals saying more needs to be done.
Noboa, the heir to a banana business fortune, won office in snap elections in 2023 on promises to fight the crime explosion. He has used presidential decrees to deploy the military on the streets and within prisons and beef up security at ports, declaring 22 criminal organizations terrorist groups. Sentences for drug crimes and terrorism have become longer.
The result, he says, is a 15% reduction in violent deaths in 2024, a drastic fall in deaths in prisons - where once-common riots have become rare - and the capture of major gang leaders.
His opponents, including leftist Luisa Gonzalez, who he faced in the 2023 run-off, argue it is not enough. She says she would respond to crime with major military and police operations, pursue allegedly corrupt judges and prosecutors, and give law enforcement better technology.
She also wants to implement a social spending plan in the most violent areas. But the tough-on-crime stance of the leading candidates reflects a shift in Latin America more generally, where leaders are moving away from examining the root causes of crime towards a more punitive stance that allows less tolerance of rampant gang activity, often at the expense of civil liberties.
Voters, desperate for less insecurity and better employment opportunities, are receptive, with some polls putting Noboa within striking distance of a first-round victory on Feb. 9.
"The president should finish the political project that he has pledged, he should end the mafia, drug trafficking, insecurity and that's why I support him for four more years," said Rosa Torres, 47, in the Andean city of Cayambe. "The military must remain on the streets."
A campaign focused on Noboa's signature issue has allowed him to dominate the debate, confounding initial doubts about the 37-year-old's political staying-power and potentially ushering in more military deployments and deepened international anti-crime cooperation should he win a full four-year term.
The use of the military has made it possible for Noboa to position himself as worthy of reelection, said Cristian Carpio, head of political risk firm Profitas.
"The president wants to show that despite the short time he has had, he has made gains in security and in fighting corruption," Carpio said.
Noboa argues that he needs more time in office to implement his "Phoenix" security plan and other promises on security and employment.
"We have been firm because Ecuador needs this change," Noboa said during a rally in Santa Elena province in late January. "The other (candidates) don't have any idea what they're doing, we have shown that with very few resources, in a broken country, we can turn things around."
FIRST-ROUND VICTORY?
Noboa has said he intends to win in the first round - either by getting more than 50% of the vote or by winning at least 40% while being 10 points ahead of his nearest rival - and two polls indicate he could.
Other surveys point to a repeat second-round fight in April with Gonzalez, a protege of former President Rafael Correa, who is still a major political figure though he lives in Belgium and has been convicted on corruption charges, which he denies.
Noboa's opponents say he has failed to enact his 2023 pledge to house the most dangerous criminals on prison boats and that a rise in value-added tax to fund security has not borne fruit.
"He hasn't lacked time, he's lacked truth, he's lacked knowledge, capacity, experience and above all, love for the people and for the country," Gonzalez told a rally in the city of Latacunga on Jan. 27. "Someone is dying in a murder every hour, but maybe for (Noboa's administration) that's just a number."
Despite last year's decline in the rate of violent deaths, according to government figures, Gonzalez cites a recent sharp uptick. Figures published in local media, quoting the police, say 658 violent deaths were recorded from Jan. 1 to Jan. 26, one of the highest levels of any month in the last three years and 220 higher than in January last year. Police did not respond to a request for comment by Reuters.
Other candidates are advocating for the death penalty or life sentences for murderers and rapists, firings of officials, more military bases on Ecuador's borders and the construction of new prisons.
Local civil rights groups have raised concerns about the need for safeguards. And many of those proposals would require constitutional changes and face difficult approvals in a divided national legislature.
Others, such as military deployment, tougher security at ports, and new prisons, Noboa says he has already begun implementing.
"By standing up his narrative about being tough on crime, the (other) candidates don't just legitimize what Noboa is doing, they point to what he is doing being good," said independent political analyst Alfredo Espinoza. "It seems like they don't have other alternatives."