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Brazil passes half a million COVID-19 deaths, experts warn of worse ahead

  
WorldJun 20, 2021 04:00PM ET

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William Faulkner
William Faulkner Jun 20, 2021 5:40PM ET
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I read Edward's thoughts. Take note of one salient point. World mortality when studied decades from now will show that deaths were statistically uneventful pandemic or not. As life happens babies are born mortality will happen. As populations age people pass away. Not to diminish a variant of the flu because my wife's father has Covid and was relatively healthy. In the end his body couldn't fight the respiratory issues. If the flu variant of covid hadn't happened odds would suggest the other flu types or pneumonia would have been the catalyst of his death.
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Adrian White
Adrian White Jun 20, 2021 5:40PM ET
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"Flu variant of Covid"? What are you talking about? The influenza virus and the virus that causes Covid are completely different viruses. One is not a variant of the other. That's like talking about 'the cat variant of a dog".
Edward Lewis
Edward Lewis Jun 20, 2021 5:40PM ET
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As a thought experiment/illustration, let's say that there was a virus that ki.lls nobody. But you create a test for this virus that can detect the virus 100% of the time but has a 5% false positive rate and you test 100 million people. And let's say there is a 10% incidence of this virus in the population. This means that if you test all 100 million people, you will have 10 million positive tests from people who have the actual virus, and 4.5 million false positives (5% false positive rate from the 90% of the population that is uninfected). Now let's say you start counting everybody who di.es after testing positive for the virus as having di.ed from the virus. If 5% of the population di.es each year just for various reasons, this means that you are going to have 725,000 dea.ths counted from that virus...even if the virus actually ki.lls nobody. So I am not suggesting COVID-19 does not ki.ll people, but the way that they count COVID-19 deaths is false and misleading.
Edward Lewis
Edward Lewis Jun 20, 2021 5:40PM ET
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Adrian White  True, COVID-19 is SARS-CoV-2, which was produce in a lab in Wuhan that was doing genetic research on SARS-CoV-1 thanks to support/funding from Fauci/NIH.
Edward Lewis
Edward Lewis Jun 20, 2021 5:40PM ET
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Also, as a thought experiment/illustration, let's say that there was a virus that ki.lls nobody. But you create a test for this virus that can detect the virus 100% of the time but has a 5% false positive rate and you test 100 million people. And let's say there is a 10% incidence of this virus in the population. This means that if you test all 100 million people, you will have 10 million positive tests from people who have the actual virus, and 4.5 million false positives (5% false positive rate from the 90% of the population that is uninfected). Now let's say you start counting everybody who di.es after testing positive for the virus as having di.ed from the virus. If 5% of the population di.es each year just from other causes, this means that you are going to have 725,000 dea.ths counted from that virus...even if the virus actually ki.lls nobody. So I am not suggesting COVID-19 does not ki.ll people, but the way that they count COVID-19 deaths is false and misleading.
Edward Lewis
Edward Lewis Jun 20, 2021 5:40PM ET
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Edward Lewis  Sorry about the duplicate post with the thought experiment, this site gave an error message the first time I submitted it and thought it censored the post...this site has a lengthy list of censored words.
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