Investing.com - An increase in uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff plans would be needed to spark a significant outflow of foreign positions in U.S. stocks, according to analysts at Yardeni Research.
Overseas buyers of U.S. equities have been a key driver of Wall Street gains relative to the rest of the world for several decades, the analysts added in a note to clients, citing data showing that foreigners held 37% of all U.S. stocks in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Although this is less than half of what U.S. households and nonprofits own, the $34.2 trillion collective value of foreign-owned U.S. stocks is a "sizeable chunk and could certainly move the needle" should these purchases begin to move to other markets, the Yardeni analysts said.
Interest has grown in European assets in particular in recent months, as bargain-hunting investors shy away from elevated U.S. stock valuations for cheaper options and move to take advantage of a weaker dollar.
So far this year, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index has well outperformed the benchmark S&P 500. Still, non-U.S.-based investors tend to have more American holdings than in their home domiciles, with data from MSCI indices suggesting that the U.S. stock market represents nearly three-fourths of the value of global equities.
"The evidence suggests to us that foreign investors tend to chase U.S. market outperformance, not drive it," the Yardeni Research analysts said.
"So while the recent rally in overseas stock markets and the decline in the dollar’s value suggest that foreigners have rebalanced their portfolios away from the U.S., we think much more than trade uncertainty would be necessary to cause a significant capital outflow attributable to foreign stock investors."
Economists have flagged that Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff proposals could refuel inflationary pressures in the U.S. and spark a downturn in broader economic activity. Consumer sentiment has slumped amid Trump’s fluctuating policy and inflation expectations have risen.
The murky outlook has led to a recent sell-off in U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 plunging at one point into correction territory, defined as more than 10% below a recent peak.
But even if the tariffs manage to shrink the U.S. trade deficit, such a trend would likely not stem investment from flowing into U.S. assets, the Yardeni analysts said.
"It seems unlikely. Would any long-term investor with sizable assets feel comfortable not owning the world’s biggest multinational corporations such as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft?" they argued.