Investing.com -- UBS says that large copper mining projects could begin placing equipment orders as soon as 2025, with a strong building activity into 2026 and beyond, potentially benefiting European mining equipment makers.
The brokerage highlighted Metso (OTC:MXTOF) as its top pick, citing the company’s high exposure to copper and strong leverage to the capital spending cycle in mining.
UBS said copper accounts for more than 40% of global mining capital expenditure, making it the single largest driver of order intake for mining original equipment manufacturers.
“There is a strong, structural outlook for copper demand, which is driven by electrification,” UBS wrote, noting that the market remains tight and substantial investment will be required to meet future supply needs.
The timing of large orders remains uncertain, but UBS said past patterns suggest OEMs typically receive orders shortly after a project reaches final investment decision (FID), rather than closer to the mine’s production start.
Last year’s orders for Pakistan’s $6 billion Reko Diq project were cited as an example of the impact large greenfield copper mines can have: the orders represented 14% of 2024 mineral equipment orders for Weir and 11% for Metso.
UBS said conversations across the industry support a robust outlook, although some players are more cautious.
FLSmidth, for instance, expects an uptick in activity starting in 2026, based on discussions with engineering contractors.
The bank concluded that while 2025 could mark the start of a new wave of equipment orders, the bulk of the copper project pipeline is likely to translate into business for OEMs in 2026, 2027, and 2028.