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U.S. dollar positioning turns net short for first time since July 2021 -CFTC, Reuters data

Published 11/18/2022, 04:00 PM
Updated 11/18/2022, 05:27 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
AUD/USD
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BARC
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's net positioning turned net short in the latest week for the first time since mid-July 2021, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

The value of the net short dollar position amounted to $10.5 million in the week ended Nov. 15, from net longs of $2.36 billion in the previous week.

Investors have turned bearish on the dollar after a tamer-than-expected U.S. inflation report for October that came out on Nov. 10, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve could slow its tightening pace. That report was the strongest indication yet that inflation may be turning the corner, some analysts said.

For the month of November, the dollar has so far fallen 4%, on pace for its largest monthly decline since September 2010.

The euro's net long position, meanwhile, rose to 112,666 contracts, their largest since June 2021.

"Recent trends have been heavily influenced by aggressive covering of EUR gross shorts - particularly in the aftermath of the ECB (European Central Bank) taking its key policy rate back above zero," Scotiabank wrote in a research note after the CFTC data.

Barclays (LON:BARC), in a recent research note, raised its year-end forecast in euro/dollar to $1.03, from its previous estimate of $0.97. Going forward, Barclays said the euro is underpinned by sufficiently improved gas and oil supplies, with shortages "no longer a risk factor constraining production."

In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin futures' net long positioning rose to 571 contracts in the week ended Nov. 15, from 18 the previous week. This week's net longs were the largest since Oct. 11.

The collapse of digital asset exchange FTX has reverberated across the crypto industry. FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States last week in the highest-profile crypto blowup to date. FTX's implosion came after traders pulled $6 billion from the platform in three days and rival exchange Binance abandoned a rescue deal.

Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

$6.458 billion

15 Nov 2022 Prior week

week

Long 33,797 37,201

Short 99,639 112,459

Net -65,842 -75,258

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

$-13.547 billion

15 Nov 2022 Prior week

week

Long 239,369 232,317

Short 126,703 124,718

Net 112,666 107,599

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)

$2.865 billion

15 Nov 2022 Prior week

week

Long 34,699 36,630

Short 67,533 76,365

Net -32,834 -39,735

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

$2.175 billion

15 Nov 2022 Prior week

week

Long 2,271 4,865

Short 19,098 22,019

Net -16,827 -17,154

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

$1.375 billion

15 Nov 2022 Prior week

week

Long 37,456 39,586

Short 50,376 58,050

Net -12,920 -18,464

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

$3.036 billion

15 Nov 2022 Prior week

week

Long 33,214 33,288

Short 77,963 79,971

Net -44,749 -46,683

MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)

$-1.528 billion

15 Nov 2022 Prior week

week

Long 197,700 192,024

Short 129,849 132,410

Net 67,851 59,614

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)

$0.379 billion

15 Nov 2022 Prior week

week

Long 15,285 18,085

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Short 21,913 24,452

Net -6,628 -6,367

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