Ukraine international bonds tumble after Trump-Zelenskiy clash

Published 03/03/2025, 03:25 AM
Updated 03/03/2025, 09:17 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 28, 2025. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo

By Karin Strohecker

LONDON (Reuters) -Ukraine's international bonds tumbled to their lowest level in more than a month on Monday after the clash between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump last week doused hopes of Kyiv securing Washington's backing.

The 2036 maturity saw the biggest decline, down 4.5 cents to be bid at 60.775 cents to the dollar, its lowest in a month, Tradeweb data showed.

Bonds where the size of future payments was linked to economic performance suffered the sharpest declines, and trading has been very active, according to one trader.

Ukraine's GDP warrant - which pays out more if the economy grows strongly - also came under pressure, dropping around 2 cents to trade at just over 80 cents.

Ukraine debt has been on a rollercoaster in recent weeks, driven by geopolitics and uncertainty over how much support a Trump administration is prepared to extend to the war-torn nation.

"Pessimism has certainly been the optimum approach with regards to the new U.S. administration," said Paul McNamara at GAM. "I can't see the economic case for investing."

Growing tensions in mid-February, which saw Trump labelling Zelenskiy a "dictator" and rekindling relations with Russia, sent the bonds sharply lower.

But most maturities had clawed back many of their losses last week on expectations that Zelenskiy and Trump could strike a much-vaunted minerals deal during the Ukrainian leader's trip to Washington, which Kyiv hoped would prompt Trump to back Ukraine's war effort.

That optimism unravelled after Friday's explosive meeting which ended in a shouting match in the Oval Office, leading Zelenskiy to cut short his visit.

"For Europe, including Ukraine, the geopolitical news of the last four weeks could hardly have been worse," said Berenberg's Holger Schmieding.

European leaders have agreed to draw up a Ukraine peace plan to present to Washington after a London meeting on Sunday - a vital step for the United States to be able to offer security guarantees that Kyiv says are essential to deter Russia.

Zelenskiy believes he can salvage his relationship with Trump and was still willing to sign a minerals deal.

"There was a lot of solidarity for Ukraine after the meeting but a lot still hinges on the U.S.'s involvement," said Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid in a note to clients.

Following a restructuring of most of its international bonds, completed in September, Ukraine owes some $15.2 billion in face value across eight new series of instruments, plus around $2.6 billion on a GDP warrant that is earmarked for a rework. The earliest maturity on the new bonds is 2029.

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